Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 22 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 19°C outcome at 38.5% implied probability. Clear conditions promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, while the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation and moderate humidity levels around 60-70% favor the narrow range between 18°C and 20°C outcomes that together exceed 50% probability. Short-term model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though local variations such as urban heat retention in Seoul versus coastal influences near Incheon and any late adjustments in wind patterns could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will provide the final observational calibration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 22?
19°C 36%
18°C 30%
20°C 24%
21°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
5%
15°C
5%
16°C
7%
17°C
11%
18°C
30%
19°C
39%
20°C
24%
21°C
19%
22°C
4%
23°C
2%
24°C or higher
3%
19°C 36%
18°C 30%
20°C 24%
21°C 19%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
5%
15°C
$0 Vol.
5%
16°C
$0 Vol.
7%
17°C
$0 Vol.
11%
18°C
$49 Vol.
30%
19°C
$149 Vol.
39%
20°C
$212 Vol.
24%
21°C
$0 Vol.
19%
22°C
$0 Vol.
4%
23°C
$0 Vol.
2%
24°C or higher
$0 Vol.
3%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 22 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 19°C outcome at 38.5% implied probability. Clear conditions promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, while the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation and moderate humidity levels around 60-70% favor the narrow range between 18°C and 20°C outcomes that together exceed 50% probability. Short-term model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though local variations such as urban heat retention in Seoul versus coastal influences near Incheon and any late adjustments in wind patterns could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will provide the final observational calibration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$410End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 22 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 19°C outcome at 38.5% implied probability. Clear conditions promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, while the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation and moderate humidity levels around 60-70% favor the narrow range between 18°C and 20°C outcomes that together exceed 50% probability. Short-term model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though local variations such as urban heat retention in Seoul versus coastal influences near Incheon and any late adjustments in wind patterns could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will provide the final observational calibration.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Incheon Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksi
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$410End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rksiResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate a minimum temperature near 19°C in the Seoul-Incheon area on September 22 under mostly clear skies and light easterly winds, supporting the market's leading 19°C outcome at 38.5% implied probability. Clear conditions promote strong nighttime radiative cooling, while the absence of significant cloud cover or precipitation and moderate humidity levels around 60-70% favor the narrow range between 18°C and 20°C outcomes that together exceed 50% probability. Short-term model consensus remains tight with minimal spread, though local variations such as urban heat retention in Seoul versus coastal influences near Incheon and any late adjustments in wind patterns could shift the exact low by 1°C. Updated guidance from the Korea Meteorological Administration ahead of resolution will provide the final observational calibration.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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