**Thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours is the main driver keeping the 22°C-or-below and 32°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied at roughly 50% and 49% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models show Shenzhen under a moist, unstable airmass with scattered to moderate thunderstorms expected on September 21–22, producing cloud cover and rainfall that can suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup typically yields overnight lows in the 25–27°C range, consistent with September climatology for the region. The narrow spread between the two leading bins reflects uncertainty in how much additional cooling enhanced convection or lingering cloud cover might deliver versus the baseline subtropical warmth. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies over the coming day will likely resolve whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer side of that distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 22?
Lowest temperature in Shenzhen on September 22?
22°C or below 100%
32°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
100%
23°C
38%
24°C
38%
25°C
40%
26°C
40%
27°C
39%
28°C
38%
29°C
8%
30°C
38%
31°C
38%
32°C or higher
98%
22°C or below 100%
32°C or higher 98%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 22, 2026
22°C or below
$0 Vol.
100%
23°C
$0 Vol.
38%
24°C
$0 Vol.
38%
25°C
$0 Vol.
40%
26°C
$0 Vol.
40%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
38%
29°C
$0 Vol.
8%
30°C
$0 Vol.
38%
31°C
$0 Vol.
38%
32°C or higher
$0 Vol.
98%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours is the main driver keeping the 22°C-or-below and 32°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied at roughly 50% and 49% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models show Shenzhen under a moist, unstable airmass with scattered to moderate thunderstorms expected on September 21–22, producing cloud cover and rainfall that can suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup typically yields overnight lows in the 25–27°C range, consistent with September climatology for the region.
The narrow spread between the two leading bins reflects uncertainty in how much additional cooling enhanced convection or lingering cloud cover might deliver versus the baseline subtropical warmth. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies over the coming day will likely resolve whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer side of that distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours is the main driver keeping the 22°C-or-below and 32°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied at roughly 50% and 49% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models show Shenzhen under a moist, unstable airmass with scattered to moderate thunderstorms expected on September 21–22, producing cloud cover and rainfall that can suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup typically yields overnight lows in the 25–27°C range, consistent with September climatology for the region.
The narrow spread between the two leading bins reflects uncertainty in how much additional cooling enhanced convection or lingering cloud cover might deliver versus the baseline subtropical warmth. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies over the coming day will likely resolve whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer side of that distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 22, 2026Market Opened
Sep 20, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Thunderstorm activity over the next 48 hours is the main driver keeping the 22°C-or-below and 32°C-or-higher outcomes nearly tied at roughly 50% and 49% implied probability.** Multiple forecast models show Shenzhen under a moist, unstable airmass with scattered to moderate thunderstorms expected on September 21–22, producing cloud cover and rainfall that can suppress daytime heating while limiting nocturnal radiative cooling. This setup typically yields overnight lows in the 25–27°C range, consistent with September climatology for the region. The narrow spread between the two leading bins reflects uncertainty in how much additional cooling enhanced convection or lingering cloud cover might deliver versus the baseline subtropical warmth. Updated model runs and official guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies over the coming day will likely resolve whether conditions trend toward the cooler or warmer side of that distribution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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