Recent forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 15 minimum near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and residual moisture, limiting overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters around 11°C as the leading outcome because slight model divergences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could trim 2–3°C from the baseline. Colder bins below 10°C gain support from potential clearer periods enhancing longwave heat loss, while warmer outcomes reflect the risk of stronger southerly flow or delayed clearing. Historical September minima average near 10°C, providing context for the tight spread amid short-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
Lowest temperature in Warsaw on September 15?
7°C or below 53%
17°C or higher 44%
16°C 39%
15°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
53%
8°C
18%
9°C
5%
10°C
26%
11°C
30%
12°C
25%
13°C
21%
14°C
18%
15°C
37%
16°C
39%
17°C or higher
44%
7°C or below 53%
17°C or higher 44%
16°C 39%
15°C 37%
NEW
NEW
Sep 15, 2026
7°C or below
$67 Vol.
53%
8°C
$10 Vol.
18%
9°C
$97 Vol.
5%
10°C
$0 Vol.
26%
11°C
$0 Vol.
30%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
21%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$10 Vol.
37%
16°C
$10 Vol.
39%
17°C or higher
$10 Vol.
44%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 15 minimum near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and residual moisture, limiting overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters around 11°C as the leading outcome because slight model divergences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could trim 2–3°C from the baseline. Colder bins below 10°C gain support from potential clearer periods enhancing longwave heat loss, while warmer outcomes reflect the risk of stronger southerly flow or delayed clearing. Historical September minima average near 10°C, providing context for the tight spread amid short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volume
$204End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 15 minimum near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and residual moisture, limiting overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters around 11°C as the leading outcome because slight model divergences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could trim 2–3°C from the baseline. Colder bins below 10°C gain support from potential clearer periods enhancing longwave heat loss, while warmer outcomes reflect the risk of stronger southerly flow or delayed clearing. Historical September minima average near 10°C, providing context for the tight spread amid short-term forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$204End Date
Sep 15, 2026Market Opened
Sep 13, 2026, 1:31 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like ECMWF and GFS indicate a September 15 minimum near 13–14°C under mostly cloudy skies with light winds and residual moisture, limiting overnight radiative cooling. Trader consensus clusters around 11°C as the leading outcome because slight model divergences in cloud cover or boundary-layer mixing could trim 2–3°C from the baseline. Colder bins below 10°C gain support from potential clearer periods enhancing longwave heat loss, while warmer outcomes reflect the risk of stronger southerly flow or delayed clearing. Historical September minima average near 10°C, providing context for the tight spread amid short-term forecast uncertainty.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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