Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating secured his party's nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 77-80% of the vote against a younger challenger, positioning him to face Republican nominee R. Tyler MacAllister in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts's 9th district, covering Cape Cod, the South Shore, and areas around New Bedford, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the party. The state's broader partisan environment, limited Republican infrastructure, and Keating's long tenure on key committees further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm shift, a significant local scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout to overcome these structural factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMA-09 House Election Winner
MA-09 House Election Winner
$23,184 Vol.
$23,184 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
5%
$23,184 Vol.
$23,184 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,275 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$14,909 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating secured his party's nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 77-80% of the vote against a younger challenger, positioning him to face Republican nominee R. Tyler MacAllister in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts's 9th district, covering Cape Cod, the South Shore, and areas around New Bedford, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the party. The state's broader partisan environment, limited Republican infrastructure, and Keating's long tenure on key committees further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm shift, a significant local scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout to overcome these structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$23,184End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating secured his party's nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 77-80% of the vote against a younger challenger, positioning him to face Republican nominee R. Tyler MacAllister in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts's 9th district, covering Cape Cod, the South Shore, and areas around New Bedford, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the party. The state's broader partisan environment, limited Republican infrastructure, and Keating's long tenure on key committees further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm shift, a significant local scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout to overcome these structural factors.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$23,184End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Bill Keating secured his party's nomination in the September 1 primary with roughly 77-80% of the vote against a younger challenger, positioning him to face Republican nominee R. Tyler MacAllister in the November 3 general election. Massachusetts's 9th district, covering Cape Cod, the South Shore, and areas around New Bedford, has delivered consistent Democratic margins in recent cycles, reflected in nonpartisan ratings classifying the seat as solid or safe for the party. The state's broader partisan environment, limited Republican infrastructure, and Keating's long tenure on key committees further reinforce trader consensus around a Democratic hold. A Republican victory would require an unusually strong national midterm shift, a significant local scandal, or unusually high opposition turnout to overcome these structural factors.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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