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icon for Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Politics·Global Elections

Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory

icon for Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory
Politics·Global Elections

Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory

Burnham 9%+ 100.0%

Burnham 6-9% <1%

Burnham 3-6% <1%

Burnham <3% <1%

Polymarket

$66,396 Vol.

Burnham 9%+ 100.0%

Burnham 6-9% <1%

Burnham 3-6% <1%

Burnham <3% <1%

Polymarket

$66,396 Vol.

Burnham 9%+

$20,970 Vol.

Yes

Burnham 6-9%

$10,485 Vol.

No

Burnham 3-6%

$6,882 Vol.

No

Burnham <3%

$7,435 Vol.

No

Kenyon <3%

$5,825 Vol.

No

Kenyon 3-6%

$3,463 Vol.

No

Kenyon 6%+

$5,735 Vol.

No

Other

$5,601 Vol.

No

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$66,396
Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Andy Burnham, the Labour candidate and Greater Manchester mayor, holds the strongest position in the Makerfield by-election due to his national profile and the seat's 2024 Labour majority, though Reform UK's Robert Kenyon benefits from strong local support and a split anti-Labour vote among Conservatives, Restore Britain, and others. Recent polls show Burnham leading by 5–12 points among likely voters, with the race remaining competitive amid local priorities such as the cost of living and high streets. The final days of campaigning, including candidate debates and door-knocking by figures like Nigel Farage, have reinforced expectations of a Burnham win, with traders pricing in a margin exceeding 9% as the most probable outcome based on historical by-election turnout patterns and Labour's organisational edge in the constituency.

A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.

For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket.

If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/).

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Volume
$66,396
Market Opened
May 18, 2026, 6:53 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Makerfield is expected to be held in June 2026 following the announced resignation of incumbent Josh Simons. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Wigan Council (https://www.wigan.gov.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Burnham 9%+" at 100%, followed by "Burnham 6-9%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory" has generated $66.4K in total trading volume since the market launched on May 18, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory" is "Burnham 9%+" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Burnham 6-9%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Makerfield by-election: Margin of Victory" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.