Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 primaries, where state Delegate Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination in an open race to replace longtime Representative Steny Hoyer. Boafo benefited from Hoyer’s endorsement and support from Governor Wes Moore, prevailing in a crowded field against better-known challengers. The district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus on the general election matchup against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment, or exceptional turnout shifts in southern Maryland counties, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such changes improbable before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMD-05 House Election Winner
MD-05 House Election Winner
$17,978 Vol.
$17,978 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
95%
Republican Party
4%
$17,978 Vol.
$17,978 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$8,736 Vol.
95%
Republican Party
$9,242 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 primaries, where state Delegate Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination in an open race to replace longtime Representative Steny Hoyer. Boafo benefited from Hoyer’s endorsement and support from Governor Wes Moore, prevailing in a crowded field against better-known challengers. The district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus on the general election matchup against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment, or exceptional turnout shifts in southern Maryland counties, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such changes improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$17,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 primaries, where state Delegate Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination in an open race to replace longtime Representative Steny Hoyer. Boafo benefited from Hoyer’s endorsement and support from Governor Wes Moore, prevailing in a crowded field against better-known challengers. The district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus on the general election matchup against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment, or exceptional turnout shifts in southern Maryland counties, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such changes improbable before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MD-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$17,978End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Maryland’s 5th congressional district remains a solidly Democratic seat following the June 2026 primaries, where state Delegate Adrian Boafo secured the Democratic nomination in an open race to replace longtime Representative Steny Hoyer. Boafo benefited from Hoyer’s endorsement and support from Governor Wes Moore, prevailing in a crowded field against better-known challengers. The district’s partisan voting index and consistent Democratic performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus on the general election matchup against Republican nominee Chris Chaffee. Forecasters rate the race Solid or Safe Democratic. Scenarios that could alter the outcome include a major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, an unusually strong national Republican midterm environment, or exceptional turnout shifts in southern Maryland counties, though historical patterns and structural advantages make such changes improbable before November 3.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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