The low historical rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes—typically just a few globally per decade—combined with no recorded M8+ events in 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of “No” by June 30. Recent seismic activity has included a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8 and earlier M7+ shocks in Japan and elsewhere, yet none triggered sustained aftershock sequences or geodetic anomalies capable of producing a follow-on megaquake in the remaining days. Official USGS catalogs and monitoring networks show no elevated strain signals or model consensus pointing to an imminent great event in active subduction zones. While tectonic stress continues to accumulate in regions such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, the short resolution window and absence of precursors maintain strong trader consensus, though an unexpected M8+ rupture before month-end remains a low-probability but possible outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$78,487 거래량
$78,487 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$78,487 거래량
$78,487 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The low historical rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes—typically just a few globally per decade—combined with no recorded M8+ events in 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of “No” by June 30. Recent seismic activity has included a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8 and earlier M7+ shocks in Japan and elsewhere, yet none triggered sustained aftershock sequences or geodetic anomalies capable of producing a follow-on megaquake in the remaining days. Official USGS catalogs and monitoring networks show no elevated strain signals or model consensus pointing to an imminent great event in active subduction zones. While tectonic stress continues to accumulate in regions such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, the short resolution window and absence of precursors maintain strong trader consensus, though an unexpected M8+ rupture before month-end remains a low-probability but possible outcome.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$78,487종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The low historical rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes—typically just a few globally per decade—combined with no recorded M8+ events in 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of “No” by June 30. Recent seismic activity has included a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8 and earlier M7+ shocks in Japan and elsewhere, yet none triggered sustained aftershock sequences or geodetic anomalies capable of producing a follow-on megaquake in the remaining days. Official USGS catalogs and monitoring networks show no elevated strain signals or model consensus pointing to an imminent great event in active subduction zones. While tectonic stress continues to accumulate in regions such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, the short resolution window and absence of precursors maintain strong trader consensus, though an unexpected M8+ rupture before month-end remains a low-probability but possible outcome.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$78,487종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The low historical rate of magnitude 8.0 or greater earthquakes—typically just a few globally per decade—combined with no recorded M8+ events in 2026 underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability of “No” by June 30. Recent seismic activity has included a magnitude 7.8 event offshore the Philippines on June 8 and earlier M7+ shocks in Japan and elsewhere, yet none triggered sustained aftershock sequences or geodetic anomalies capable of producing a follow-on megaquake in the remaining days. Official USGS catalogs and monitoring networks show no elevated strain signals or model consensus pointing to an imminent great event in active subduction zones. While tectonic stress continues to accumulate in regions such as the Nankai Trough or Cascadia, the short resolution window and absence of precursors maintain strong trader consensus, though an unexpected M8+ rupture before month-end remains a low-probability but possible outcome.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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