Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no megaquake—M9.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only four confirmed in the past century along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, Sumatra, and Chile. No short-term seismic precursors are detectable, as affirmed by USGS monitoring, which shows 2026's largest quake at M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1; recent M7.7 activity offshore Japan prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency alert raising near-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1%, but M9+ barriers remain high absent massive strain accumulation. Ongoing USGS real-time data and aftershock patterns provide no signals of escalation, with resolution hinging on verified magnitude from authoritative catalogs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedMegaquake by June 30?
Megaquake by June 30?
$56,910 Vol.
$56,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
$56,910 Vol.
$56,910 Vol.
Jun 30, 2026
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no megaquake—M9.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only four confirmed in the past century along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, Sumatra, and Chile. No short-term seismic precursors are detectable, as affirmed by USGS monitoring, which shows 2026's largest quake at M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1; recent M7.7 activity offshore Japan prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency alert raising near-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1%, but M9+ barriers remain high absent massive strain accumulation. Ongoing USGS real-time data and aftershock patterns provide no signals of escalation, with resolution hinging on verified magnitude from authoritative catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Market Opened: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
Volume
$56,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no megaquake—M9.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only four confirmed in the past century along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, Sumatra, and Chile. No short-term seismic precursors are detectable, as affirmed by USGS monitoring, which shows 2026's largest quake at M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1; recent M7.7 activity offshore Japan prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency alert raising near-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1%, but M9+ barriers remain high absent massive strain accumulation. Ongoing USGS real-time data and aftershock patterns provide no signals of escalation, with resolution hinging on verified magnitude from authoritative catalogs.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Volume
$56,910End Date
Jun 30, 2026Market Opened
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 80.5% implied probability to no megaquake—M9.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, reflecting the extreme rarity of such events, with only four confirmed in the past century along major subduction zones like Cascadia, Japan, Sumatra, and Chile. No short-term seismic precursors are detectable, as affirmed by USGS monitoring, which shows 2026's largest quake at M7.4 off Indonesia on April 1; recent M7.7 activity offshore Japan prompted a Japan Meteorological Agency alert raising near-term M8+ odds to 1% from 0.1%, but M9+ barriers remain high absent massive strain accumulation. Ongoing USGS real-time data and aftershock patterns provide no signals of escalation, with resolution hinging on verified magnitude from authoritative catalogs.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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