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Politics·Primaries

MN-02 Republican Primary Winner

icon for MN-02 Republican Primary Winner
Politics·Primaries

MN-02 Republican Primary Winner

$18,685 Vol.

Polymarket

$18,685 Vol.

Eric Pratt

$2,983 Vol.

87%

Tyler Kistner

$15,702 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Eric Pratt's commanding 85.5% implied probability in the MN-02 Republican primary stems from his unchallenged status following Tyler Kistner's April 15 withdrawal due to Marine Reserves deployment, leaving Pratt as the sole major GOP contender. This was solidified yesterday at the CD2 Republican endorsing convention, where Pratt secured the party's formal backing amid precinct caucuses and grassroots support from figures like Rep. Jon Koznick and the Minnesota GOP. With the August 11 primary approaching, traders view Pratt's incumbency as a state senator from Prior Lake, local endorsements, and clear path-to-victory as near-insurmountable barriers to rivals, though a late entrant or write-in surge could theoretically shift dynamics in this open seat race vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's Senate bid.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,685
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.State Sen. Eric Pratt's commanding 85.5% implied probability in the MN-02 Republican primary stems from his unchallenged status following Tyler Kistner's April 15 withdrawal due to Marine Reserves deployment, leaving Pratt as the sole major GOP contender. This was solidified yesterday at the CD2 Republican endorsing convention, where Pratt secured the party's formal backing amid precinct caucuses and grassroots support from figures like Rep. Jon Koznick and the Minnesota GOP. With the August 11 primary approaching, traders view Pratt's incumbency as a state senator from Prior Lake, local endorsements, and clear path-to-victory as near-insurmountable barriers to rivals, though a late entrant or write-in surge could theoretically shift dynamics in this open seat race vacated by Rep. Angie Craig's Senate bid.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$18,685
End Date
Aug 11, 2026
Market Opened
Dec 18, 2025, 3:32 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MN-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 11, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"MN-02 Republican Primary Winner" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Eric Pratt" at 87%, followed by "Tyler Kistner" at 1%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 87¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "MN-02 Republican Primary Winner" has generated $18.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "MN-02 Republican Primary Winner," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "MN-02 Republican Primary Winner" is "Eric Pratt" at 87%, meaning the market assigns a 87% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Tyler Kistner" at 1%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "MN-02 Republican Primary Winner" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.