Trader consensus currently assigns a 78.5% implied probability that none of the four qualifying thresholds will occur in 2026. Through early September, official USGS records show no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data indicate suppressed Atlantic activity with no Category 5 U.S. landfalls amid elevated wind shear. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been reported by Smithsonian or NASA monitoring. These thresholds remain historically infrequent, and the absence of triggering events through the first eight months has anchored market-implied odds on “No.” The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing global seismic surveillance through year-end represent the primary remaining variables that could shift probabilities if conditions align with the strict resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
20% chance
$245,338 Vol.
$245,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
20% chance
$245,338 Vol.
$245,338 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 78.5% implied probability that none of the four qualifying thresholds will occur in 2026. Through early September, official USGS records show no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data indicate suppressed Atlantic activity with no Category 5 U.S. landfalls amid elevated wind shear. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been reported by Smithsonian or NASA monitoring. These thresholds remain historically infrequent, and the absence of triggering events through the first eight months has anchored market-implied odds on “No.” The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing global seismic surveillance through year-end represent the primary remaining variables that could shift probabilities if conditions align with the strict resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$245,338End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus currently assigns a 78.5% implied probability that none of the four qualifying thresholds will occur in 2026. Through early September, official USGS records show no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data indicate suppressed Atlantic activity with no Category 5 U.S. landfalls amid elevated wind shear. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been reported by Smithsonian or NASA monitoring. These thresholds remain historically infrequent, and the absence of triggering events through the first eight months has anchored market-implied odds on “No.” The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing global seismic surveillance through year-end represent the primary remaining variables that could shift probabilities if conditions align with the strict resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$245,338End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus currently assigns a 78.5% implied probability that none of the four qualifying thresholds will occur in 2026. Through early September, official USGS records show no earthquakes reaching magnitude 8.5, while NOAA’s National Hurricane Center data indicate suppressed Atlantic activity with no Category 5 U.S. landfalls amid elevated wind shear. No VEI ≥6 eruptions or 10 kt+ meteor impacts have been reported by Smithsonian or NASA monitoring. These thresholds remain historically infrequent, and the absence of triggering events through the first eight months has anchored market-implied odds on “No.” The peak of the Atlantic hurricane season and ongoing global seismic surveillance through year-end represent the primary remaining variables that could shift probabilities if conditions align with the strict resolution criteria.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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