NOAA's May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño-driven wind shear and only a 10% chance of above-normal activity with 8-14 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes, forms the main driver behind the 76% market-implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster. Early-season conditions remain quiet with no active tropical cyclones, while historical analogs and model consensus point to reduced landfall risk compared to average years. Ongoing monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS seismic networks shows typical background levels of earthquakes and other events, but none yet meeting elevated thresholds that would shift consensus. Traders are watching the peak August-October window and any revised model runs for potential changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$232,558 Vol.
$232,558 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$232,558 Vol.
$232,558 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
NOAA's May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño-driven wind shear and only a 10% chance of above-normal activity with 8-14 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes, forms the main driver behind the 76% market-implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster. Early-season conditions remain quiet with no active tropical cyclones, while historical analogs and model consensus point to reduced landfall risk compared to average years. Ongoing monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS seismic networks shows typical background levels of earthquakes and other events, but none yet meeting elevated thresholds that would shift consensus. Traders are watching the peak August-October window and any revised model runs for potential changes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Market Opened: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$232,558End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
NOAA's May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño-driven wind shear and only a 10% chance of above-normal activity with 8-14 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes, forms the main driver behind the 76% market-implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster. Early-season conditions remain quiet with no active tropical cyclones, while historical analogs and model consensus point to reduced landfall risk compared to average years. Ongoing monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS seismic networks shows typical background levels of earthquakes and other events, but none yet meeting elevated thresholds that would shift consensus. Traders are watching the peak August-October window and any revised model runs for potential changes.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$232,558End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA's May 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season, citing expected El Niño-driven wind shear and only a 10% chance of above-normal activity with 8-14 named storms and 1-3 major hurricanes, forms the main driver behind the 76% market-implied probability for no qualifying natural disaster. Early-season conditions remain quiet with no active tropical cyclones, while historical analogs and model consensus point to reduced landfall risk compared to average years. Ongoing monitoring by the National Hurricane Center and USGS seismic networks shows typical background levels of earthquakes and other events, but none yet meeting elevated thresholds that would shift consensus. Traders are watching the peak August-October window and any revised model runs for potential changes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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