Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 real GDP expansion, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4%, consistent with U.S. Bank’s 2.1% baseline and other consensus estimates near 2.0–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP rose 1.5% annualized, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. These factors reinforce trader confidence that the expansion will remain above zero through year-end. Tail risks include geopolitical shocks, sustained inflation prompting additional policy tightening, or an abrupt pullback in productivity-enhancing investment that could tip output into contraction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2% chance
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
2% chance
$33,419 Vol.
$33,419 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 real GDP expansion, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4%, consistent with U.S. Bank’s 2.1% baseline and other consensus estimates near 2.0–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP rose 1.5% annualized, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. These factors reinforce trader confidence that the expansion will remain above zero through year-end. Tail risks include geopolitical shocks, sustained inflation prompting additional policy tightening, or an abrupt pullback in productivity-enhancing investment that could tip output into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Market Opened: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
Volume
$33,419End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 real GDP expansion, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4%, consistent with U.S. Bank’s 2.1% baseline and other consensus estimates near 2.0–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP rose 1.5% annualized, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. These factors reinforce trader confidence that the expansion will remain above zero through year-end. Tail risks include geopolitical shocks, sustained inflation prompting additional policy tightening, or an abrupt pullback in productivity-enhancing investment that could tip output into contraction.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
Volume
$33,419End Date
Jan 29, 2027Market Opened
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent FOMC projections and private forecasts underpin the 98% market-implied probability against negative 2026 GDP growth. The Federal Reserve’s September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections shows a 2.3% median Q4/Q4 real GDP expansion, with the central tendency spanning 2.2–2.4%, consistent with U.S. Bank’s 2.1% baseline and other consensus estimates near 2.0–2.2%. Second-quarter GDP rose 1.5% annualized, supported by resilient consumer spending, AI-driven capital investment, and a stable labor market with unemployment near 4.3%. These factors reinforce trader confidence that the expansion will remain above zero through year-end. Tail risks include geopolitical shocks, sustained inflation prompting additional policy tightening, or an abrupt pullback in productivity-enhancing investment that could tip output into contraction.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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