OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially targeted a potential late-2026 debut, yet CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation—well above the company’s $852 billion March private mark—prompted advisers to recommend delaying until 2027. Recent reporting confirms Altman has described any lower valuation as a nonstarter, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and the need for stronger financials amid ongoing infrastructure spending. As of September 2026, Altman has publicly signaled an IPO is unlikely before 2027 while exploring a fresh private round near $1.2 trillion. This internal consensus, reinforced by heavy losses and competitive AI dynamics, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against a $1T+ listing in 2026. A sudden surge in revenue or favorable market conditions could still accelerate timing, though current trajectories make that unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$312,331 Vol.
$312,331 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$312,331 Vol.
$312,331 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially targeted a potential late-2026 debut, yet CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation—well above the company’s $852 billion March private mark—prompted advisers to recommend delaying until 2027. Recent reporting confirms Altman has described any lower valuation as a nonstarter, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and the need for stronger financials amid ongoing infrastructure spending. As of September 2026, Altman has publicly signaled an IPO is unlikely before 2027 while exploring a fresh private round near $1.2 trillion. This internal consensus, reinforced by heavy losses and competitive AI dynamics, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against a $1T+ listing in 2026. A sudden surge in revenue or favorable market conditions could still accelerate timing, though current trajectories make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Market Opened: Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ET
Volume
$312,331End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially targeted a potential late-2026 debut, yet CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation—well above the company’s $852 billion March private mark—prompted advisers to recommend delaying until 2027. Recent reporting confirms Altman has described any lower valuation as a nonstarter, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and the need for stronger financials amid ongoing infrastructure spending. As of September 2026, Altman has publicly signaled an IPO is unlikely before 2027 while exploring a fresh private round near $1.2 trillion. This internal consensus, reinforced by heavy losses and competitive AI dynamics, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against a $1T+ listing in 2026. A sudden surge in revenue or favorable market conditions could still accelerate timing, though current trajectories make that unlikely.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if OpenAI completes an initial public offering (IPO) valued at $1 trillion USD or higher at the time of the IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
An “initial public offering (IPO)” refers to the first sale of OpenAI’s equity securities to the public through a regulated stock exchange.
OpenAI will be considered to have achieved a $1 trillion valuation if the market capitalization implied by the IPO offering price multiplied by the total number of outstanding shares equals or exceeds $1 trillion USD.
Announcements, filings, or planned IPOs that do not result in public trading by that time will not qualify. Private funding rounds, secondary share sales, or employee-share transactions will not be considered. A direct listing or merger via SPAC will qualify only if it results in OpenAI’s common shares becoming publicly traded for the first time on a major exchange.
If OpenAI’s IPO is priced before the resolution deadline but public trading has not yet commenced, the market may remain open for up to 30 calendar days to determine whether the IPO is completed.
If OpenAI is acquired, dissolved, or merged into another entity before an IPO occurs, this market will resolve to “No.” In the event of a restructuring, the market will resolve based on the entity legally recognized as OpenAI’s successor will
The resolution source will be a consensus for credible reporting.
Volume
$312,331End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Oct 29, 2025, 8:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 initially targeted a potential late-2026 debut, yet CEO Sam Altman’s insistence on a $1 trillion-plus valuation—well above the company’s $852 billion March private mark—prompted advisers to recommend delaying until 2027. Recent reporting confirms Altman has described any lower valuation as a nonstarter, citing SpaceX’s post-IPO volatility and the need for stronger financials amid ongoing infrastructure spending. As of September 2026, Altman has publicly signaled an IPO is unlikely before 2027 while exploring a fresh private round near $1.2 trillion. This internal consensus, reinforced by heavy losses and competitive AI dynamics, underpins the 97% market-implied probability against a $1T+ listing in 2026. A sudden surge in revenue or favorable market conditions could still accelerate timing, though current trajectories make that unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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