OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation after the March round and August employee tender have anchored trader expectations for a debut well above $1 trillion once the company lists. CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 IPO—citing AI safety and alignment priorities—shifted focus to 2027, while reports of investor interest in a $1.2–1.5 trillion private round reinforced momentum toward higher valuations. With annualized revenue exceeding $40 billion and sustained demand for AI exposure, market-implied odds heavily favor a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion (59.2 percent), tempered by the 24.8 percent probability of no IPO by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 filing and further funding rounds that could reset the valuation benchmark before a potential 2027 listing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated1.5T+ 59.1%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 24.8%
1.25T–1.5T 7%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$354,913 Vol.
$354,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
1%
500–750B
1%
750B–1T
2%
1T–1.25T
4%
1.25T–1.5T
7%
1.5T+
59%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
25%
1.5T+ 59.1%
No IPO by December 31, 2027 24.8%
1.25T–1.5T 7%
1T–1.25T 3.9%
$354,913 Vol.
$354,913 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<500B
$30,077 Vol.
1%
500–750B
$27,888 Vol.
1%
750B–1T
$65,984 Vol.
2%
1T–1.25T
$41,471 Vol.
4%
1.25T–1.5T
$31,867 Vol.
7%
1.5T+
$78,330 Vol.
59%
No IPO by December 31, 2027
$79,297 Vol.
25%
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation after the March round and August employee tender have anchored trader expectations for a debut well above $1 trillion once the company lists. CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 IPO—citing AI safety and alignment priorities—shifted focus to 2027, while reports of investor interest in a $1.2–1.5 trillion private round reinforced momentum toward higher valuations. With annualized revenue exceeding $40 billion and sustained demand for AI exposure, market-implied odds heavily favor a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion (59.2 percent), tempered by the 24.8 percent probability of no IPO by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 filing and further funding rounds that could reset the valuation benchmark before a potential 2027 listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Volume
$354,913End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation after the March round and August employee tender have anchored trader expectations for a debut well above $1 trillion once the company lists. CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 IPO—citing AI safety and alignment priorities—shifted focus to 2027, while reports of investor interest in a $1.2–1.5 trillion private round reinforced momentum toward higher valuations. With annualized revenue exceeding $40 billion and sustained demand for AI exposure, market-implied odds heavily favor a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion (59.2 percent), tempered by the 24.8 percent probability of no IPO by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 filing and further funding rounds that could reset the valuation benchmark before a potential 2027 listing.
This market will resolve based on OpenAI's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$354,913End Date
Jan 1, 2028Market Opened
Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and reaffirmed $852 billion private valuation after the March round and August employee tender have anchored trader expectations for a debut well above $1 trillion once the company lists. CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statement ruling out a 2026 IPO—citing AI safety and alignment priorities—shifted focus to 2027, while reports of investor interest in a $1.2–1.5 trillion private round reinforced momentum toward higher valuations. With annualized revenue exceeding $40 billion and sustained demand for AI exposure, market-implied odds heavily favor a closing market cap above $1.5 trillion (59.2 percent), tempered by the 24.8 percent probability of no IPO by end-2027. Key near-term catalysts include any public S-1 filing and further funding rounds that could reset the valuation benchmark before a potential 2027 listing.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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