Incumbent Rep. Suzanne Bonamici's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% for the OR-01 House seat stems from the district's strong D+20 partisan voting index, her consistent general election margins exceeding 64% since 2020, and minimal opposition in the May 19 Democratic primary against low-funded challenger Jamil Ahmad. Republican primary contenders Barbara Kahl and John Verbeek lack visible fundraising or name recognition in this deep-blue Portland suburbs and coastal area, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and others. While a Bonamici primary upset, emergence of a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, historical precedents suggest formidable barriers to flipping the seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedOR-01 House Election Winner
OR-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$828 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$90 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Suzanne Bonamici's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% for the OR-01 House seat stems from the district's strong D+20 partisan voting index, her consistent general election margins exceeding 64% since 2020, and minimal opposition in the May 19 Democratic primary against low-funded challenger Jamil Ahmad. Republican primary contenders Barbara Kahl and John Verbeek lack visible fundraising or name recognition in this deep-blue Portland suburbs and coastal area, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and others. While a Bonamici primary upset, emergence of a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, historical precedents suggest formidable barriers to flipping the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
Volume
$918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Suzanne Bonamici's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% for the OR-01 House seat stems from the district's strong D+20 partisan voting index, her consistent general election margins exceeding 64% since 2020, and minimal opposition in the May 19 Democratic primary against low-funded challenger Jamil Ahmad. Republican primary contenders Barbara Kahl and John Verbeek lack visible fundraising or name recognition in this deep-blue Portland suburbs and coastal area, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and others. While a Bonamici primary upset, emergence of a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, historical precedents suggest formidable barriers to flipping the seat.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the OR-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$918End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Suzanne Bonamici's commanding trader consensus at 92.5% for the OR-01 House seat stems from the district's strong D+20 partisan voting index, her consistent general election margins exceeding 64% since 2020, and minimal opposition in the May 19 Democratic primary against low-funded challenger Jamil Ahmad. Republican primary contenders Barbara Kahl and John Verbeek lack visible fundraising or name recognition in this deep-blue Portland suburbs and coastal area, rated Solid Democratic by Cook Political Report and others. While a Bonamici primary upset, emergence of a well-funded GOP nominee post-primary, personal scandal, or national Republican midterm wave could shift odds, historical precedents suggest formidable barriers to flipping the seat.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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