Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 54.5% implied probability compared to 42% for Democrats. Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has represented the Bucks County-based seat since 2017, benefits from incumbency, strong name recognition, and a history of outperforming the district's slight Democratic lean in presidential voting. Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner who secured his party's nomination with 65% in the May primary, faces the challenge of mobilizing suburban voters in a district rated lean or likely Republican by major forecasters. Recent polling shows Fitzpatrick leading by narrow margins, while limited national momentum or major campaign developments have kept the race stable in prediction markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedPA-01 House Election Winner
PA-01 House Election Winner
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
55%
Democratic Party
43%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$4,022 Vol.
55%
Democratic Party
$3,141 Vol.
43%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 54.5% implied probability compared to 42% for Democrats. Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has represented the Bucks County-based seat since 2017, benefits from incumbency, strong name recognition, and a history of outperforming the district's slight Democratic lean in presidential voting. Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner who secured his party's nomination with 65% in the May primary, faces the challenge of mobilizing suburban voters in a district rated lean or likely Republican by major forecasters. Recent polling shows Fitzpatrick leading by narrow margins, while limited national momentum or major campaign developments have kept the race stable in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Market Opened: Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ET
Volume
$7,163End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 54.5% implied probability compared to 42% for Democrats. Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has represented the Bucks County-based seat since 2017, benefits from incumbency, strong name recognition, and a history of outperforming the district's slight Democratic lean in presidential voting. Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner who secured his party's nomination with 65% in the May primary, faces the challenge of mobilizing suburban voters in a district rated lean or likely Republican by major forecasters. Recent polling shows Fitzpatrick leading by narrow margins, while limited national momentum or major campaign developments have kept the race stable in prediction markets.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the PA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,163End Date
Nov 4, 2026Market Opened
Dec 16, 2025, 12:49 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Republican incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick holds a modest edge in Pennsylvania's 1st congressional district heading into the November 3, 2026, general election, with traders assigning the Republican Party a 54.5% implied probability compared to 42% for Democrats. Fitzpatrick, a moderate who has represented the Bucks County-based seat since 2017, benefits from incumbency, strong name recognition, and a history of outperforming the district's slight Democratic lean in presidential voting. Democratic nominee Bob Harvie, a Bucks County commissioner who secured his party's nomination with 65% in the May primary, faces the challenge of mobilizing suburban voters in a district rated lean or likely Republican by major forecasters. Recent polling shows Fitzpatrick leading by narrow margins, while limited national momentum or major campaign developments have kept the race stable in prediction markets.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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