British authorities arrested Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor in February 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to his past role as trade envoy and documented contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, but released him the same day under ongoing investigation with no charges filed. The Crown Prosecution Service has not advanced the case in the intervening months, reflecting the high evidentiary threshold for this common-law offense, which requires proof of willful abuse of office. Traders assign a 97.4% probability against prison sentencing because no prosecution has materialized and historical patterns show reluctance to pursue such matters against senior royals absent overwhelming evidence. Potential shifts remain possible if new disclosures from U.S. authorities or Metropolitan Police reviews of related allegations prompt formal charges, followed by a successful jury trial.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated3% chance
$222,906 Vol.
$222,906 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
3% chance
$222,906 Vol.
$222,906 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.British authorities arrested Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor in February 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to his past role as trade envoy and documented contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, but released him the same day under ongoing investigation with no charges filed. The Crown Prosecution Service has not advanced the case in the intervening months, reflecting the high evidentiary threshold for this common-law offense, which requires proof of willful abuse of office. Traders assign a 97.4% probability against prison sentencing because no prosecution has materialized and historical patterns show reluctance to pursue such matters against senior royals absent overwhelming evidence. Potential shifts remain possible if new disclosures from U.S. authorities or Metropolitan Police reviews of related allegations prompt formal charges, followed by a successful jury trial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ET
Volume
$222,906End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.British authorities arrested Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor in February 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to his past role as trade envoy and documented contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, but released him the same day under ongoing investigation with no charges filed. The Crown Prosecution Service has not advanced the case in the intervening months, reflecting the high evidentiary threshold for this common-law offense, which requires proof of willful abuse of office. Traders assign a 97.4% probability against prison sentencing because no prosecution has materialized and historical patterns show reluctance to pursue such matters against senior royals absent overwhelming evidence. Potential shifts remain possible if new disclosures from U.S. authorities or Metropolitan Police reviews of related allegations prompt formal charges, followed by a successful jury trial.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Prince Andrew is sentenced to any time in jail/prison for any charges, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will remain open through December 31, 2026 or until Prince Andrew is sentenced to time in jail/prison, regardless of any initial sentencing that does not include prison. Any sentencing will qualify, regardless of subsequent appeals or changes to the sentence.
Civil lawsuits, regulatory actions, administrative complaints, investigations without charges, internal employment actions, or public accusations without the filing of criminal charges will not qualify, even if widely reported or described colloquially as “charges.”
If at any point all charges against Prince Andrew for all criminal cases are dropped for whatever reason, due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or any other situation in which no judgement is rendered or will be rendered by the court, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant government and law enforcement; however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$222,906End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Feb 19, 2026, 11:21 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...British authorities arrested Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor in February 2026 on suspicion of misconduct in public office tied to his past role as trade envoy and documented contacts with Jeffrey Epstein, but released him the same day under ongoing investigation with no charges filed. The Crown Prosecution Service has not advanced the case in the intervening months, reflecting the high evidentiary threshold for this common-law offense, which requires proof of willful abuse of office. Traders assign a 97.4% probability against prison sentencing because no prosecution has materialized and historical patterns show reluctance to pursue such matters against senior royals absent overwhelming evidence. Potential shifts remain possible if new disclosures from U.S. authorities or Metropolitan Police reviews of related allegations prompt formal charges, followed by a successful jury trial.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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