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icon for Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?
Politics·Us House

Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?

icon for Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?
Politics·Us House

Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?

15% chance
Polymarket
NEW
15% chance
Polymarket
NEW
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Representative Tom Kean Jr. returned to the House floor on June 30, 2026, after a four-month absence tied to hospitalization and treatment for depression, ending speculation about his immediate status. He has since resumed voting and public duties while reaffirming his commitment to completing the current term and seeking a third term in New Jersey’s competitive 7th District against Democrat Rebecca Bennett. No subsequent announcements, health updates, or party actions have indicated plans for resignation or early departure. With the November 2026 midterm still ahead and no procedural or personal developments suggesting otherwise, trader consensus assigns an 85.5% probability that he will remain in office through the end of his term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$204
End Date
Jan 4, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Representative Tom Kean Jr. returned to the House floor on June 30, 2026, after a four-month absence tied to hospitalization and treatment for depression, ending speculation about his immediate status. He has since resumed voting and public duties while reaffirming his commitment to completing the current term and seeking a third term in New Jersey’s competitive 7th District against Democrat Rebecca Bennett. No subsequent announcements, health updates, or party actions have indicated plans for resignation or early departure. With the November 2026 midterm still ahead and no procedural or personal developments suggesting otherwise, trader consensus assigns an 85.5% probability that he will remain in office through the end of his term.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to “Yes” if Thomas Kean Jr. ceases to be United States Representative from New Jersey's 7th congressional district for any period of time between market creation and the regularly scheduled end of his term in the current Congress. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Kean's early resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Thomas Kean Jr. and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$204
End Date
Jan 4, 2027
Market Opened
Jul 1, 2026, 5:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 14% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 14¢, the market collectively assigns a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jul 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?" is 14% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 14% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Tom Kean Jr. out as US Rep before term ends?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.