Market icon

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Market icon

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

5% chance
Polymarket

$14,699 Vol.

5% chance
Polymarket

$14,699 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing ample headroom as public debt stands around $38.4 trillion with no immediate X-date projected until late 2026 or 2027 per CBO and Bipartisan Policy Center estimates. This follows historical patterns where lawmakers have suspended or increased the limit 78 times since 1960 to avoid default, often amid partisan brinkmanship but ultimate bipartisan resolution. President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal emphasizes $1.5 trillion in defense spending with discretionary cuts but omits debt limit urgency, reinforcing trader consensus that political pressures will yield action before any payment prioritization or shutdown escalates to default by year-end 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,699
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Congress raised the debt ceiling to $41.1 trillion in July 2025 via the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, providing ample headroom as public debt stands around $38.4 trillion with no immediate X-date projected until late 2026 or 2027 per CBO and Bipartisan Policy Center estimates. This follows historical patterns where lawmakers have suspended or increased the limit 78 times since 1960 to avoid default, often amid partisan brinkmanship but ultimate bipartisan resolution. President Trump's April 3, 2026, FY2027 budget proposal emphasizes $1.5 trillion in defense spending with discretionary cuts but omits debt limit urgency, reinforcing trader consensus that political pressures will yield action before any payment prioritization or shutdown escalates to default by year-end 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$14,699
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

Related

Market icon

EU debt downgrade before 2027?

28%
Market icon

Any EU nation's debt downgraded before 2027?

63%
Market icon

Will the 10-year Treasury yield dip below 3.9% before 2027?

65%

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"US defaults on debt by 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 5% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 5¢, the market collectively assigns a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US defaults on debt by 2027?" has generated $14.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US defaults on debt by 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US defaults on debt by 2027?" is 5% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 5% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US defaults on debt by 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.