Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 20 signal plans to announce additional economic measures against Iran and its trading partners on August 24, intensifying the maximum pressure campaign amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and proxy activities. Prior designations in early and mid-August, combined with the expiration of temporary oil transaction authorizations, have reinforced enforcement patterns without guaranteeing immediate new designations by the market's Monday deadline. Traders weigh the scheduled announcement against potential diplomatic delays, the scope of any measures, and historical precedents for sanction rollouts under similar administrations. A confirmed round of designations targeting banking, shipping, or energy networks by August 24 would likely shift implied probabilities toward "Yes," while any postponement or narrower actions focused on existing networks could sustain the narrow edge for "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated49% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
49% chance
NEW
NEW
Aug 24, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 20 signal plans to announce additional economic measures against Iran and its trading partners on August 24, intensifying the maximum pressure campaign amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and proxy activities. Prior designations in early and mid-August, combined with the expiration of temporary oil transaction authorizations, have reinforced enforcement patterns without guaranteeing immediate new designations by the market's Monday deadline. Traders weigh the scheduled announcement against potential diplomatic delays, the scope of any measures, and historical precedents for sanction rollouts under similar administrations. A confirmed round of designations targeting banking, shipping, or energy networks by August 24 would likely shift implied probabilities toward "Yes," while any postponement or narrower actions focused on existing networks could sustain the narrow edge for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 20 signal plans to announce additional economic measures against Iran and its trading partners on August 24, intensifying the maximum pressure campaign amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and proxy activities. Prior designations in early and mid-August, combined with the expiration of temporary oil transaction authorizations, have reinforced enforcement patterns without guaranteeing immediate new designations by the market's Monday deadline. Traders weigh the scheduled announcement against potential diplomatic delays, the scope of any measures, and historical precedents for sanction rollouts under similar administrations. A confirmed round of designations targeting banking, shipping, or energy networks by August 24 would likely shift implied probabilities toward "Yes," while any postponement or narrower actions focused on existing networks could sustain the narrow edge for "No."
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against Iran between market creation and August 24, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with Iran. Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by Iran or Iranian citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with Iran will qualify. The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against Iran will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
The following will not qualify: the non-renewal or expiration of licenses or other sanction-exemptions; the designation of new specific entities to be sanctioned under an existing rule absent new sanctions; and enforcement settlements or civil penalties for past conduct.
The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on Iran within this market's timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the sanctions come into effect.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 24, 2026Market Opened
Aug 21, 2026, 4:25 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on August 20 signal plans to announce additional economic measures against Iran and its trading partners on August 24, intensifying the maximum pressure campaign amid ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz and proxy activities. Prior designations in early and mid-August, combined with the expiration of temporary oil transaction authorizations, have reinforced enforcement patterns without guaranteeing immediate new designations by the market's Monday deadline. Traders weigh the scheduled announcement against potential diplomatic delays, the scope of any measures, and historical precedents for sanction rollouts under similar administrations. A confirmed round of designations targeting banking, shipping, or energy networks by August 24 would likely shift implied probabilities toward "Yes," while any postponement or narrower actions focused on existing networks could sustain the narrow edge for "No."
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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