Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedAnother Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
Another Iranian diplomat expelled by...?
NEW
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
7%
September 30
44%
October 31
51%
$442 Vol.
August 31
$442 Vol.
7%
September 30
$0 Vol.
44%
October 31
$0 Vol.
51%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ET
Volume
$442End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice.
An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$442End Date
Oct 31, 2026Market Opened
Aug 19, 2026, 8:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Heightened US-Iran tensions following July 2026 escalations in the Strait of Hormuz, including Iranian attacks on commercial vessels and subsequent US strikes on Iranian assets, represent the primary driver shaping trader sentiment on further diplomat expulsions. These events broke a June memorandum of understanding and prompted renewed military exchanges, raising the prospect of reciprocal diplomatic measures by the US, European states, or regional actors over espionage, proxy support for Hezbollah, or national security threats. Prior expulsions, such as the US actions against Iranian UN mission personnel in late 2025 and Lebanon's March 2026 persona non grata declaration, illustrate how bilateral frictions often lead to such steps. No major new expulsions have occurred in the past 30 days, but scheduled diplomatic engagements or additional military incidents could shift probabilities.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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