**No draft authorization is expected in 2026, as reflected in the 86.5% trader consensus on that outcome.** The United States has maintained an all-volunteer force since the draft ended in 1973, and reinstating conscription requires a specific act of Congress to amend the Military Selective Service Act, followed by presidential action to induct personnel—steps that have not occurred and face significant institutional and political barriers. The most recent major development was the December 2025 passage and signing of the FY 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, which added automatic Selective Service registration for men ages 18-26 beginning in December 2026. This improves the existing registry using federal databases but explicitly does not authorize or trigger a draft. Officials and analysts have repeatedly clarified that the change maintains readiness without advancing conscription. In May 2026, a bipartisan group of senators introduced legislation to phase out the Selective Service System altogether, citing its cost and limited relevance since 1973. Discussions around potential conflicts, such as with Iran, have prompted statements that “all options remain on the table,” yet no legislative proposals, hearings, or executive actions have moved toward draft authorization. Historical precedent, public opposition to conscription, and congressional focus on registration reform rather than activation continue to support the current market pricing. Resolution would require verifiable congressional passage and presidential approval of new induction authority within the calendar year.