The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no legislation enacted to authorize conscription in 2026 despite the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's shift to automatic Selective Service registration effective December 18. Activation would require separate congressional passage of an induction bill, presidential signature, and a national emergency where volunteer recruitment falls short—none of which has occurred amid current geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these institutional and political barriers, reinforced by public opposition and administration statements keeping a draft off the active agenda. Late-year escalation in major conflicts or sudden manpower shortfalls could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated5% chance
$531,928 Vol.
$531,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
5% chance
$531,928 Vol.
$531,928 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no legislation enacted to authorize conscription in 2026 despite the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's shift to automatic Selective Service registration effective December 18. Activation would require separate congressional passage of an induction bill, presidential signature, and a national emergency where volunteer recruitment falls short—none of which has occurred amid current geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these institutional and political barriers, reinforced by public opposition and administration statements keeping a draft off the active agenda. Late-year escalation in major conflicts or sudden manpower shortfalls could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$531,928End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no legislation enacted to authorize conscription in 2026 despite the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's shift to automatic Selective Service registration effective December 18. Activation would require separate congressional passage of an induction bill, presidential signature, and a national emergency where volunteer recruitment falls short—none of which has occurred amid current geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these institutional and political barriers, reinforced by public opposition and administration statements keeping a draft off the active agenda. Late-year escalation in major conflicts or sudden manpower shortfalls could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$531,928End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The U.S. military has operated as an all-volunteer force since 1973, with no legislation enacted to authorize conscription in 2026 despite the fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act's shift to automatic Selective Service registration effective December 18. Activation would require separate congressional passage of an induction bill, presidential signature, and a national emergency where volunteer recruitment falls short—none of which has occurred amid current geopolitical tensions, including Iran-related developments. Trader consensus at 95.5% for "No" reflects these institutional and political barriers, reinforced by public opposition and administration statements keeping a draft off the active agenda. Late-year escalation in major conflicts or sudden manpower shortfalls could still prompt emergency congressional action before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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