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icon for US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
Politics·Trump

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

icon for US congress stock trading ban before 2027?
Politics·Trump

US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

7% chance
Polymarket

$19,842 Vol.

7% chance
Polymarket

$19,842 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. House passage of the Stop Insider Trading Act in July 2026 marked the first chamber-level action on congressional stock trading restrictions in over a decade, yet the measure bans only new individual stock purchases while permitting existing holdings and attaching unrelated voter-ID provisions. The bill now faces a steep Senate path requiring 60 votes amid partisan divides over scope, divestment requirements, and executive-branch inclusion. A separate bipartisan Senate vehicle cleared committee earlier but lacks scheduled floor time, and recent Democratic proposals have not advanced. With the 119th Congress nearing its end and no procedural breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects these entrenched legislative barriers to enactment before December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,842
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used. House passage of the Stop Insider Trading Act in July 2026 marked the first chamber-level action on congressional stock trading restrictions in over a decade, yet the measure bans only new individual stock purchases while permitting existing holdings and attaching unrelated voter-ID provisions. The bill now faces a steep Senate path requiring 60 votes amid partisan divides over scope, divestment requirements, and executive-branch inclusion. A separate bipartisan Senate vehicle cleared committee earlier but lacks scheduled floor time, and recent Democratic proposals have not advanced. With the 119th Congress nearing its end and no procedural breakthroughs, trader consensus reflects these entrenched legislative barriers to enactment before December 31, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any bill with the effect of banning sitting members of the US congress from trading stocks is signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$19,842
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:50 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 7% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 7¢, the market collectively assigns a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" has generated $19.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" is 7% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 7% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "US congress stock trading ban before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.