**Senate procedural barriers and repeated failed advancement attempts explain the strong trader consensus against H.R. 22 (the SAVE Act or SAVE America Act) becoming law in 2026.** The bill, which requires documentary proof of citizenship for federal voter registration and photo ID for voting, passed the House in February 2026 on a 218-213 vote. However, Senate efforts to attach it as amendments to must-pass measures, including DHS funding and the NDAA, failed in June and July. Key votes fell short at 48-50, with Republican Senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski, Mitch McConnell, and Thom Tillis joining Democrats to block cloture. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has stated he sees little prospect of floor consideration for the remainder of the session absent a filibuster carve-out or viable reconciliation path, both of which face internal GOP divisions and institutional resistance. With limited legislative calendar remaining before the 2026 midterms and no successful override of the 60-vote threshold achieved despite multiple attempts, traders view enactment this year as highly improbable.