The entrenched U.S. commitment to an all-volunteer force since 1973, combined with the absence of any legislation restoring induction authority under the Selective Service System, underpins trader consensus that Congress will not authorize a draft in 2026. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in late 2025, addressed only automatic registration effective December 2026 without granting conscription powers, while the Army met its fiscal year 2025 recruiting targets ahead of schedule. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Military Selective Service Act have advanced no further than introduction, and polling continues to show broad public resistance. A draft would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, neither of which is underway. Late-year developments such as sharp volunteer shortfalls amid ongoing conflicts or an acute national emergency could still prompt action before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated4% chance
$525,568 Vol.
$525,568 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% chance
$525,568 Vol.
$525,568 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The entrenched U.S. commitment to an all-volunteer force since 1973, combined with the absence of any legislation restoring induction authority under the Selective Service System, underpins trader consensus that Congress will not authorize a draft in 2026. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in late 2025, addressed only automatic registration effective December 2026 without granting conscription powers, while the Army met its fiscal year 2025 recruiting targets ahead of schedule. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Military Selective Service Act have advanced no further than introduction, and polling continues to show broad public resistance. A draft would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, neither of which is underway. Late-year developments such as sharp volunteer shortfalls amid ongoing conflicts or an acute national emergency could still prompt action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Volume
$525,568End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The entrenched U.S. commitment to an all-volunteer force since 1973, combined with the absence of any legislation restoring induction authority under the Selective Service System, underpins trader consensus that Congress will not authorize a draft in 2026. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in late 2025, addressed only automatic registration effective December 2026 without granting conscription powers, while the Army met its fiscal year 2025 recruiting targets ahead of schedule. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Military Selective Service Act have advanced no further than introduction, and polling continues to show broad public resistance. A draft would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, neither of which is underway. Late-year developments such as sharp volunteer shortfalls amid ongoing conflicts or an acute national emergency could still prompt action before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$525,568End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The entrenched U.S. commitment to an all-volunteer force since 1973, combined with the absence of any legislation restoring induction authority under the Selective Service System, underpins trader consensus that Congress will not authorize a draft in 2026. The fiscal year 2026 National Defense Authorization Act, signed in late 2025, addressed only automatic registration effective December 2026 without granting conscription powers, while the Army met its fiscal year 2025 recruiting targets ahead of schedule. Bipartisan proposals to repeal the Military Selective Service Act have advanced no further than introduction, and polling continues to show broad public resistance. A draft would require separate congressional passage and presidential approval, neither of which is underway. Late-year developments such as sharp volunteer shortfalls amid ongoing conflicts or an acute national emergency could still prompt action before year-end.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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