Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 10 seizure of the strategic port of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated risks to global shipping lanes handling roughly 12% of world trade and prompted residents to flee toward government-controlled Aden. These developments have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting heightened supply concerns amid Saudi export route vulnerabilities and broader Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets aggregates capital-weighted views on escalation timelines, with energy benchmarks and Red Sea transit volumes serving as key real-time indicators. Potential catalysts ahead include further coastal pushes, Iranian support signals, or Saudi counterstrikes that could alter commodity price trajectories and maritime risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
9%
October 31
12%
December 31
13%
$7,596 Vol.
September 30
$1,400 Vol.
9%
October 31
$2,507 Vol.
12%
December 31
$3,688 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 10 seizure of the strategic port of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated risks to global shipping lanes handling roughly 12% of world trade and prompted residents to flee toward government-controlled Aden. These developments have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting heightened supply concerns amid Saudi export route vulnerabilities and broader Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets aggregates capital-weighted views on escalation timelines, with energy benchmarks and Red Sea transit volumes serving as key real-time indicators. Potential catalysts ahead include further coastal pushes, Iranian support signals, or Saudi counterstrikes that could alter commodity price trajectories and maritime risk premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Sep 10, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
Volume
$7,596End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 10 seizure of the strategic port of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated risks to global shipping lanes handling roughly 12% of world trade and prompted residents to flee toward government-controlled Aden. These developments have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting heightened supply concerns amid Saudi export route vulnerabilities and broader Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets aggregates capital-weighted views on escalation timelines, with energy benchmarks and Red Sea transit volumes serving as key real-time indicators. Potential catalysts ahead include further coastal pushes, Iranian support signals, or Saudi counterstrikes that could alter commodity price trajectories and maritime risk premiums.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Houthi military forces enter any part of Aden, Yemen by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
"Houthi military forces" refers to the military forces of the Houthi movement (Ansar Allah), including any armed force operating under its direction or on its behalf.
"Aden" refers to the following districts of Aden Governorate, Yemen: Craiter (Sirah), At Tawahi, Al Mualla, Khur Maksar, Ash Shaikh Outhman, Dar Sad, and Al Mansura. Al Buraiqeh district (Little Aden) is excluded and entry into Al Buraiqeh alone will not qualify.
"Enter" means that the Houthi military forces, even temporarily, deliberately operate within any part of Aden, other than as prisoners of war or as emissaries as described below. Bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of activity will not qualify on their own. An announcement, threat, or claim of Houthi entry will not qualify without actual entry being established.
The entrance of Houthi emissaries for the purpose of negotiating an agreement or other diplomatic or commercial endeavors will not alone qualify.
In the event of genuine ambiguity, this market may remain open for three days after the specified date. If Houthi entry into Aden is not established by the end of the third calendar day, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$7,596End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Sep 10, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi advances along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the September 10 seizure of the strategic port of Mocha near the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, have elevated risks to global shipping lanes handling roughly 12% of world trade and prompted residents to flee toward government-controlled Aden. These developments have pushed Brent crude above $100 per barrel for the first time since May, reflecting heightened supply concerns amid Saudi export route vulnerabilities and broader Middle East tensions. Trader sentiment on related prediction markets aggregates capital-weighted views on escalation timelines, with energy benchmarks and Red Sea transit volumes serving as key real-time indicators. Potential catalysts ahead include further coastal pushes, Iranian support signals, or Saudi counterstrikes that could alter commodity price trajectories and maritime risk premiums.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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