Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil supplies and prompted a U.S. fuel blockade via executive order, along with tariffs on third-country suppliers. This has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis while the Trump administration signaled regime-change goals by year-end through public statements, increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, and rotation of Marine expeditionary units nearby. Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options including limited airstrikes, air assaults, and targeted operations, citing Cuba’s reported drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran as a potential threat to U.S. assets such as Guantánamo Bay. Parallel diplomatic channels and a Justice Department indictment of Raúl Castro add pressure, though traders assess the risk of direct military action by December 31, 2026, against the backdrop of ongoing commitments elsewhere and domestic political considerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedUS military action against Cuba by...?
US military action against Cuba by...?
$7,130,417 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
December 31
23%
$7,130,417 Vol.
December 31
$4,951,312 Vol.
23%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil supplies and prompted a U.S. fuel blockade via executive order, along with tariffs on third-country suppliers. This has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis while the Trump administration signaled regime-change goals by year-end through public statements, increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, and rotation of Marine expeditionary units nearby. Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options including limited airstrikes, air assaults, and targeted operations, citing Cuba’s reported drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran as a potential threat to U.S. assets such as Guantánamo Bay. Parallel diplomatic channels and a Justice Department indictment of Raúl Castro add pressure, though traders assess the risk of direct military action by December 31, 2026, against the backdrop of ongoing commitments elsewhere and domestic political considerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ET
Volume
$7,130,417End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil supplies and prompted a U.S. fuel blockade via executive order, along with tariffs on third-country suppliers. This has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis while the Trump administration signaled regime-change goals by year-end through public statements, increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, and rotation of Marine expeditionary units nearby. Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options including limited airstrikes, air assaults, and targeted operations, citing Cuba’s reported drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran as a potential threat to U.S. assets such as Guantánamo Bay. Parallel diplomatic channels and a Justice Department indictment of Raúl Castro add pressure, though traders assess the risk of direct military action by December 31, 2026, against the backdrop of ongoing commitments elsewhere and domestic political considerations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a US-initiated drone, missile, or air strike on the soil of Cuba is announced or credibly reported to have occurred by the listed date ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including FPV and ATGM strikes as well as cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by any United States operatives, including military forces, intelligence agencies, or other U.S. government operatives, that physically impact ground territory within the listed country.
A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory (including rivers, lakes, ports, but excluding territorial sea) of the listed country counts.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, ground incursions, naval shelling, or cyberattacks will not qualify.
Any strike occurring during this market’s timeframe that is claimed by either Donald Trump or the U.S. government will qualify.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will remain open until the end of the second day after the resolution time. If the date/time of a qualifying strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by that time, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Volume
$7,130,417End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 3:08 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tensions between the United States and Cuba have escalated since the January 2026 U.S. intervention in Venezuela, which cut off Venezuelan oil supplies and prompted a U.S. fuel blockade via executive order, along with tariffs on third-country suppliers. This has intensified Cuba’s economic and energy crisis while the Trump administration signaled regime-change goals by year-end through public statements, increased surveillance overflights, deployment of the USS Nimitz carrier group to the Caribbean, and rotation of Marine expeditionary units nearby. Pentagon planners have reviewed contingency options including limited airstrikes, air assaults, and targeted operations, citing Cuba’s reported drone acquisitions from Russia and Iran as a potential threat to U.S. assets such as Guantánamo Bay. Parallel diplomatic channels and a Justice Department indictment of Raúl Castro add pressure, though traders assess the risk of direct military action by December 31, 2026, against the backdrop of ongoing commitments elsewhere and domestic political considerations.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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