Delcy Rodríguez holds a slim edge in trader consensus as Venezuela's interim president three months after Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 ouster and U.S. capture, reflecting her military high command overhaul—including firing Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López—and U.S.-backed oil reforms that bolster short-term stability. Maduro's 40% implied probability stems from persistent chavista loyalist campaigns demanding his return amid disputed legitimacy claims and reports of plots by figures like Diosdado Cabello. The tight race underscores internal divisions, ongoing protests over political prisoners and economic stagnation, and uncertainty around elections or constitutional limits on her interim role, with opposition leaders like María Corina Machado trailing far behind due to sidelined influence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 44%
Nicolás Maduro 38.6%
María Corina Machado 8%
No Head of State 1.4%
$82,953,329 Vol.
$82,953,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
44%
Nicolás Maduro
39%
María Corina Machado
8%
No Head of State
1%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
<1%
Donald Trump
<1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 44%
Nicolás Maduro 38.6%
María Corina Machado 8%
No Head of State 1.4%
$82,953,329 Vol.
$82,953,329 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,439,417 Vol.
44%
Nicolás Maduro
$1,095,644 Vol.
39%
María Corina Machado
$952,076 Vol.
8%
No Head of State
$811,930 Vol.
1%
Edmundo González
$620,032 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,370,695 Vol.
<1%
Donald Trump
$802,933 Vol.
<1%
Marco Rubio
$699,746 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,117,990 Vol.
<1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$490,170 Vol.
<1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$903,678 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,287,559 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,828,029 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$4,403,410 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$2,422,802 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$31,712,212 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Delcy Rodríguez holds a slim edge in trader consensus as Venezuela's interim president three months after Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 ouster and U.S. capture, reflecting her military high command overhaul—including firing Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López—and U.S.-backed oil reforms that bolster short-term stability. Maduro's 40% implied probability stems from persistent chavista loyalist campaigns demanding his return amid disputed legitimacy claims and reports of plots by figures like Diosdado Cabello. The tight race underscores internal divisions, ongoing protests over political prisoners and economic stagnation, and uncertainty around elections or constitutional limits on her interim role, with opposition leaders like María Corina Machado trailing far behind due to sidelined influence.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$82,953,329End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Delcy Rodríguez holds a slim edge in trader consensus as Venezuela's interim president three months after Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 ouster and U.S. capture, reflecting her military high command overhaul—including firing Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López—and U.S.-backed oil reforms that bolster short-term stability. Maduro's 40% implied probability stems from persistent chavista loyalist campaigns demanding his return amid disputed legitimacy claims and reports of plots by figures like Diosdado Cabello. The tight race underscores internal divisions, ongoing protests over political prisoners and economic stagnation, and uncertainty around elections or constitutional limits on her interim role, with opposition leaders like María Corina Machado trailing far behind due to sidelined influence.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa).
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$82,953,329End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Delcy Rodríguez holds a slim edge in trader consensus as Venezuela's interim president three months after Nicolás Maduro's January 2026 ouster and U.S. capture, reflecting her military high command overhaul—including firing Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino López—and U.S.-backed oil reforms that bolster short-term stability. Maduro's 40% implied probability stems from persistent chavista loyalist campaigns demanding his return amid disputed legitimacy claims and reports of plots by figures like Diosdado Cabello. The tight race underscores internal divisions, ongoing protests over political prisoners and economic stagnation, and uncertainty around elections or constitutional limits on her interim role, with opposition leaders like María Corina Machado trailing far behind due to sidelined influence.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions