Constitutional barriers under Article IV of the U.S. Constitution require congressional approval and a formal admission process for any new state, with no precedent for annexing a sovereign foreign nation like Venezuela. Recent comments from President Trump in May 2026 expressing interest in the idea drew swift rejection from Venezuelan acting President Delcy Rodríguez, who affirmed the country's commitment to independence and sovereignty. Traders assign a 96.7% probability to "No" because of these entrenched legal, diplomatic, and geopolitical obstacles, reinforced by the absence of any supporting legislation or territorial status. Scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented bilateral treaty, congressional action, or major realignment in U.S.-Venezuela relations, though none appear imminent.