Trader consensus assigns a 97.7% probability to "No" for Venezuela attaining U.S. statehood by December 31, 2026, reflecting the absence of any formal annexation process, congressional legislation, or bilateral agreement. Article IV of the U.S. Constitution requires majority approval in both chambers of Congress plus presidential signature for new states, while Venezuelan sovereignty demands domestic consent typically via referendum—steps never initiated despite President Trump's public remarks in March and May 2026. Interim President Delcy Rodríguez has repeatedly rejected the notion, emphasizing national independence, and no congressional resolutions or diplomatic negotiations have advanced. U.S. influence has grown through oil concessions following the January 2026 capture of Nicolás Maduro, yet Venezuela functions as a sovereign actor under heavy external pressure rather than a territory on a statehood track. Late developments such as a surprise congressional vote or Venezuelan leadership reversal remain theoretically possible but face prohibitive structural and political obstacles within the remaining resolution window.