Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since succeeding his father following the February 28, 2026, US-Israel strike that killed Ali Khamenei and injured Mojtaba. Regime statements and recent comments from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm he is alive, exercising final authority through written directives, and located in a secure, undisclosed site—likely within Tehran—due to persistent assassination threats amid the ongoing conflict. Multiple proof-of-life claims from Iranian officials and media in September 2026 have emphasized his health and domestic presence while rejecting earlier unverified reports of medical evacuation abroad. Security concerns and the need to maintain continuity in a collective leadership structure continue to shape assessments of any potential movement outside Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$117,838 Vol.
Oct 31, 2026
October 31
4%
December 31
5%
$117,838 Vol.
October 31
$119 Vol.
4%
December 31
$806 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since succeeding his father following the February 28, 2026, US-Israel strike that killed Ali Khamenei and injured Mojtaba. Regime statements and recent comments from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm he is alive, exercising final authority through written directives, and located in a secure, undisclosed site—likely within Tehran—due to persistent assassination threats amid the ongoing conflict. Multiple proof-of-life claims from Iranian officials and media in September 2026 have emphasized his health and domestic presence while rejecting earlier unverified reports of medical evacuation abroad. Security concerns and the need to maintain continuity in a collective leadership structure continue to shape assessments of any potential movement outside Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ET
Volume
$117,838End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since succeeding his father following the February 28, 2026, US-Israel strike that killed Ali Khamenei and injured Mojtaba. Regime statements and recent comments from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm he is alive, exercising final authority through written directives, and located in a secure, undisclosed site—likely within Tehran—due to persistent assassination threats amid the ongoing conflict. Multiple proof-of-life claims from Iranian officials and media in September 2026 have emphasized his health and domestic presence while rejecting earlier unverified reports of medical evacuation abroad. Security concerns and the need to maintain continuity in a collective leadership structure continue to shape assessments of any potential movement outside Iran.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$117,838End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Aug 18, 2026, 12:48 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has remained inside the country since succeeding his father following the February 28, 2026, US-Israel strike that killed Ali Khamenei and injured Mojtaba. Regime statements and recent comments from President Masoud Pezeshkian affirm he is alive, exercising final authority through written directives, and located in a secure, undisclosed site—likely within Tehran—due to persistent assassination threats amid the ongoing conflict. Multiple proof-of-life claims from Iranian officials and media in September 2026 have emphasized his health and domestic presence while rejecting earlier unverified reports of medical evacuation abroad. Security concerns and the need to maintain continuity in a collective leadership structure continue to shape assessments of any potential movement outside Iran.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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