**Avengers: Doomsday leads with 62% market-implied odds due to its unprecedented $50 million in domestic presales three months before the December 18 release, fueled by record trailer views, strong MCU fan engagement on Disney+, and Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom under the Russo brothers.** This early momentum signals massive audience anticipation for the ensemble crossover, positioning it ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 34.5% despite the latter’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in July. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at 0.1% each, reflecting limited tracking for opening-weekend dominance relative to the superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and marketing pushes for Doomsday, while historical patterns favor event films with premium-format demand in the holiday window. Traders weigh these franchise dynamics and verifiable box-office signals when assessing the year’s biggest debut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWhich movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 62%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 35%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$157,514 Vol.
$157,514 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
62%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
35%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 62%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 35%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
Dune: Messiah <1%
$157,514 Vol.
$157,514 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Avengers: Doomsday
$65,101 Vol.
62%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$59,478 Vol.
35%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$3,404 Vol.
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$3,728 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads with 62% market-implied odds due to its unprecedented $50 million in domestic presales three months before the December 18 release, fueled by record trailer views, strong MCU fan engagement on Disney+, and Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom under the Russo brothers.** This early momentum signals massive audience anticipation for the ensemble crossover, positioning it ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 34.5% despite the latter’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in July. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at 0.1% each, reflecting limited tracking for opening-weekend dominance relative to the superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and marketing pushes for Doomsday, while historical patterns favor event films with premium-format demand in the holiday window. Traders weigh these franchise dynamics and verifiable box-office signals when assessing the year’s biggest debut.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Market Opened: Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
Volume
$157,514End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.**Avengers: Doomsday leads with 62% market-implied odds due to its unprecedented $50 million in domestic presales three months before the December 18 release, fueled by record trailer views, strong MCU fan engagement on Disney+, and Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom under the Russo brothers.** This early momentum signals massive audience anticipation for the ensemble crossover, positioning it ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 34.5% despite the latter’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in July. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at 0.1% each, reflecting limited tracking for opening-weekend dominance relative to the superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and marketing pushes for Doomsday, while historical patterns favor event films with premium-format demand in the holiday window. Traders weigh these franchise dynamics and verifiable box-office signals when assessing the year’s biggest debut.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
Volume
$157,514End Date
Jan 1, 2027Market Opened
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Avengers: Doomsday leads with 62% market-implied odds due to its unprecedented $50 million in domestic presales three months before the December 18 release, fueled by record trailer views, strong MCU fan engagement on Disney+, and Robert Downey Jr.’s return as Doctor Doom under the Russo brothers.** This early momentum signals massive audience anticipation for the ensemble crossover, positioning it ahead of Spider-Man: Brand New Day’s 34.5% despite the latter’s record $360 million domestic opening weekend in July. The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping and Dune: Messiah sit at 0.1% each, reflecting limited tracking for opening-weekend dominance relative to the superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further presale updates and marketing pushes for Doomsday, while historical patterns favor event films with premium-format demand in the holiday window. Traders weigh these franchise dynamics and verifiable box-office signals when assessing the year’s biggest debut.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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