Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedNEW
$117,116 Vol.
Apr 30, 2026
Donald Trump
5%
J.D. Vance
76%
Marco Rubio
9%
Jared Kushner
80%
Steve Witkoff
82%
$117,116 Vol.
Donald Trump
$98,345 Vol.
5%
J.D. Vance
$7,880 Vol.
76%
Marco Rubio
$5,431 Vol.
9%
Jared Kushner
$2,495 Vol.
80%
Steve Witkoff
$4,016 Vol.
82%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Volume
$117,116End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between the listed individual, acting as a representative of the United States, and representatives of Iran by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the listed individual must be physically present at the meeting and actively participate as a negotiator representing the United States.
A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify.
Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count.
The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the listed individual and the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$117,116End Date
Apr 30, 2026Market Opened
Apr 14, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Following the April 11-12 marathon US-Iran talks in Islamabad led by Vice President JD Vance, which collapsed without a ceasefire extension and prompted a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz starting April 14, Pakistani mediators are urgently shuttling between Tehran and regional allies like Qatar to arrange a second round of negotiations before the truce expires around April 22. President Trump signaled potential talks resuming within days, boosting trader consensus on experienced US special envoy Steve Witkoff—who led prior Oman sessions—at 82% implied probability for an in-person diplomatic meeting by April 30, amid high odds also for Vance (76%) and Jared Kushner (80%), while Trump's personal involvement trades low at 5% given presidential protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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