US-Iran relations have reached a fragile turning point with a two-week ceasefire agreed on April 7-8, 2026, averting President Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that saw Iran block maritime traffic and prompted US military threats. Pakistan-mediated talks, including Iran's 10-point framework deemed a "workable basis" by Trump and upcoming negotiations in Islamabad with US Vice President JD Vance, offer a pathway to a comprehensive agreement addressing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, proxy forces, and Hormuz sovereignty. Israel has endorsed the truce, but deep-seated disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment and regional alliances leave permanent peace uncertain, with trader consensus reflecting optimism from de-escalation signals tempered by historical negotiation failures like the JCPOA. Key catalysts ahead include mediation outcomes within the ceasefire window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedUS x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
US x Iran permanent peace deal by...?
NEW
$56,675 Vol.
Apr 22, 2026
April 22
13%
April 30
19%
May 31
35%
$56,675 Vol.
April 22
$37,905 Vol.
13%
April 30
$9,601 Vol.
19%
May 31
$9,374 Vol.
35%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran relations have reached a fragile turning point with a two-week ceasefire agreed on April 7-8, 2026, averting President Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that saw Iran block maritime traffic and prompted US military threats. Pakistan-mediated talks, including Iran's 10-point framework deemed a "workable basis" by Trump and upcoming negotiations in Islamabad with US Vice President JD Vance, offer a pathway to a comprehensive agreement addressing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, proxy forces, and Hormuz sovereignty. Israel has endorsed the truce, but deep-seated disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment and regional alliances leave permanent peace uncertain, with trader consensus reflecting optimism from de-escalation signals tempered by historical negotiation failures like the JCPOA. Key catalysts ahead include mediation outcomes within the ceasefire window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ET
Volume
$56,675End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.US-Iran relations have reached a fragile turning point with a two-week ceasefire agreed on April 7-8, 2026, averting President Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that saw Iran block maritime traffic and prompted US military threats. Pakistan-mediated talks, including Iran's 10-point framework deemed a "workable basis" by Trump and upcoming negotiations in Islamabad with US Vice President JD Vance, offer a pathway to a comprehensive agreement addressing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, proxy forces, and Hormuz sovereignty. Israel has endorsed the truce, but deep-seated disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment and regional alliances leave permanent peace uncertain, with trader consensus reflecting optimism from de-escalation signals tempered by historical negotiation failures like the JCPOA. Key catalysts ahead include mediation outcomes within the ceasefire window.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran and the United states agree to a permanent peace deal by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A permanent peace deal refers to any agreement which explicitly indicates that military hostilities between the United States and Iran have ended or will permanently cease, or uses equivalent language clearly signaling a lasting end to military hostilities between the United States and Iran. Agreements that are explicitly temporary or which do not include a definitive agreement to end military hostilities between the US and Iran on a lasting basis (e.g. a temporary extension of the two-week ceasefire agreement announced on April 7, 2026), will not qualify.
A qualifying agreement will be considered to have been established if either of the following conditions are met:
- The United States and Iran each sign or formally adopt a written agreement (e.g. a treaty or multi-point agreement) which meets the above criteria.
- Both the governments of the United States and Iran provide clear public confirmation that a qualifying agreement has been definitively established. Negotiations, statements of progress, or other statements which do not constitute a definitive announcement that a qualifying agreement has been reached will not count.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$56,675End Date
May 31, 2026Market Opened
Apr 8, 2026, 12:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran relations have reached a fragile turning point with a two-week ceasefire agreed on April 7-8, 2026, averting President Trump's deadline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing conflict that saw Iran block maritime traffic and prompted US military threats. Pakistan-mediated talks, including Iran's 10-point framework deemed a "workable basis" by Trump and upcoming negotiations in Islamabad with US Vice President JD Vance, offer a pathway to a comprehensive agreement addressing nuclear limits, sanctions relief, proxy forces, and Hormuz sovereignty. Israel has endorsed the truce, but deep-seated disputes over Iran's uranium enrichment and regional alliances leave permanent peace uncertain, with trader consensus reflecting optimism from de-escalation signals tempered by historical negotiation failures like the JCPOA. Key catalysts ahead include mediation outcomes within the ceasefire window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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