SpaceX's imminent Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, with pricing completed on June 11 and trading beginning June 12 at $135 per share, anchors the 99.8% market-implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. The company advanced rapidly from its April confidential filing and May public S-1, targeting a record $75 billion raise amid strong institutional demand. In contrast, OpenAI submitted only a confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline, positioning any potential listing for late 2026 or later at valuations above $850 billion. While trader consensus reflects these verified filing stages and historical precedent for execution risk in large tech offerings, realistic scenarios such as SEC-mandated delays, market volatility disrupting SpaceX's roadshow momentum, or an unexpectedly accelerated public filing by OpenAI could still shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedSpaceX
$90,692 Vol.
$90,692 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
SpaceX
$90,692 Vol.
$90,692 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's imminent Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, with pricing completed on June 11 and trading beginning June 12 at $135 per share, anchors the 99.8% market-implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. The company advanced rapidly from its April confidential filing and May public S-1, targeting a record $75 billion raise amid strong institutional demand. In contrast, OpenAI submitted only a confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline, positioning any potential listing for late 2026 or later at valuations above $850 billion. While trader consensus reflects these verified filing stages and historical precedent for execution risk in large tech offerings, realistic scenarios such as SEC-mandated delays, market volatility disrupting SpaceX's roadshow momentum, or an unexpectedly accelerated public filing by OpenAI could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volume
$90,692End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's imminent Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, with pricing completed on June 11 and trading beginning June 12 at $135 per share, anchors the 99.8% market-implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. The company advanced rapidly from its April confidential filing and May public S-1, targeting a record $75 billion raise amid strong institutional demand. In contrast, OpenAI submitted only a confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline, positioning any potential listing for late 2026 or later at valuations above $850 billion. While trader consensus reflects these verified filing stages and historical precedent for execution risk in large tech offerings, realistic scenarios such as SEC-mandated delays, market volatility disrupting SpaceX's roadshow momentum, or an unexpectedly accelerated public filing by OpenAI could still shift outcomes.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$90,692End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's imminent Nasdaq debut under ticker SPCX, with pricing completed on June 11 and trading beginning June 12 at $135 per share, anchors the 99.8% market-implied probability that it will IPO before OpenAI. The company advanced rapidly from its April confidential filing and May public S-1, targeting a record $75 billion raise amid strong institutional demand. In contrast, OpenAI submitted only a confidential S-1 on June 8 with no fixed timeline, positioning any potential listing for late 2026 or later at valuations above $850 billion. While trader consensus reflects these verified filing stages and historical precedent for execution risk in large tech offerings, realistic scenarios such as SEC-mandated delays, market volatility disrupting SpaceX's roadshow momentum, or an unexpectedly accelerated public filing by OpenAI could still shift outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions