Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting “volume production” of the Cybercab in 2026, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and complete manufacturing lines at Giga Texas before meaningful commercial output. While limited early units have begun assembly, analysts note that unsupervised Full Self-Driving software, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and supply-chain readiness remain unresolved bottlenecks typical of Tesla’s past timeline shifts. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around the 83.5% “No” implied probability, as actual customer sales at or below $30,000 would require both scaled hardware production and certified autonomy capabilities within the remaining months of 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Tesla’s next earnings update and any FSD software milestones that could alter the production ramp.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$47,840 Vol.
$47,840 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting “volume production” of the Cybercab in 2026, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and complete manufacturing lines at Giga Texas before meaningful commercial output. While limited early units have begun assembly, analysts note that unsupervised Full Self-Driving software, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and supply-chain readiness remain unresolved bottlenecks typical of Tesla’s past timeline shifts. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around the 83.5% “No” implied probability, as actual customer sales at or below $30,000 would require both scaled hardware production and certified autonomy capabilities within the remaining months of 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Tesla’s next earnings update and any FSD software milestones that could alter the production ramp.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ET
Volume
$47,840End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting “volume production” of the Cybercab in 2026, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and complete manufacturing lines at Giga Texas before meaningful commercial output. While limited early units have begun assembly, analysts note that unsupervised Full Self-Driving software, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and supply-chain readiness remain unresolved bottlenecks typical of Tesla’s past timeline shifts. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around the 83.5% “No” implied probability, as actual customer sales at or below $30,000 would require both scaled hardware production and certified autonomy capabilities within the remaining months of 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Tesla’s next earnings update and any FSD software milestones that could alter the production ramp.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla sells at least one Cybercab vehicle to a qualifying retail customer for a base purchase price of $30,000 USD or less by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Cybercab” refers to the specific autonomous vehicle unveiled by Tesla in October 2024 under the Cybercab name, or a clearly designated successor product marketed by Tesla as the same vehicle model.
A qualifying retail customer must be a member of the general public purchasing the vehicle in a bona fide retail transaction under publicly available terms. Sales to employees, executives, family members, subsidiaries, internal entities, or for promotional, testing, or internal fleet purposes will not qualify.
The base purchase price refers to the vehicle’s listed retail price before taxes, registration fees, delivery fees, financing costs, or third-party incentives. Official Tesla discounts or manufacturer incentives count toward the base price.
Preorders, deposits, announced pricing targets, prototype deliveries, or internal fleet deployments will not qualify unless a completed retail sale meeting the above criteria occurs.
The primary resolution source will be official information from Tesla, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$47,840End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Feb 17, 2026, 8:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Tesla’s July 2026 shareholder letter removed prior language targeting “volume production” of the Cybercab in 2026, citing the need to scale 4680 battery output and complete manufacturing lines at Giga Texas before meaningful commercial output. While limited early units have begun assembly, analysts note that unsupervised Full Self-Driving software, regulatory approvals for driverless operation, and supply-chain readiness remain unresolved bottlenecks typical of Tesla’s past timeline shifts. These factors have reinforced trader consensus around the 83.5% “No” implied probability, as actual customer sales at or below $30,000 would require both scaled hardware production and certified autonomy capabilities within the remaining months of 2026. Key near-term catalysts include Tesla’s next earnings update and any FSD software milestones that could alter the production ramp.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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