**Canada’s population trajectory in 2026 reflects the direct effects of federal immigration policy adjustments aimed at reducing the share of non-permanent residents.** The 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan stabilized permanent resident targets at 380,000 annually while sharply cutting new temporary resident admissions—including a roughly 50% drop in international student arrivals and reduced temporary foreign worker entries—explicitly to lower the non-permanent resident population toward 5% of total residents by the end of 2027. Statistics Canada data confirm the impact: the population fell 0.1% (55,025 people) in the first quarter of 2026 alone, marking the third consecutive quarterly decline and the first recorded annual drop since Confederation. The Parliamentary Budget Officer projects net outflows of non-permanent residents exceeding inflows, resulting in flat or slightly negative growth for the full year. These policy-driven reductions in temporary migration volumes, combined with ongoing quarterly outflows, underpin trader consensus that the net population change for 2026 will be negative.