Elevated inflation readings, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline PCE around 3.6% in mid-2026 amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with resilient labor market data showing unemployment steady near 4.3% and solid GDP growth, form the primary driver behind the near-even market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reflected in the June dot plot’s 3.8% median funds rate projection, has shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy while leaving room for data-dependent outcomes. Upcoming September and October meetings, plus releases such as the September CPI and nonfarm payrolls, remain key swing factors that could widen the current tight probability spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour25 bps increase 48%
Aucun changement 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
8%
Aucun changement
45%
25 bps increase
48%
50+ bps increase
2%
25 bps increase 48%
Aucun changement 45%
25 bps decrease 7.6%
50+ bps decrease 1.9%
$455,201 Vol.
$455,201 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
50+ bps decrease
$75,056 Vol.
2%
25 bps decrease
$98,986 Vol.
8%
Aucun changement
$71,807 Vol.
45%
25 bps increase
$124,252 Vol.
48%
50+ bps increase
$85,099 Vol.
2%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline PCE around 3.6% in mid-2026 amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with resilient labor market data showing unemployment steady near 4.3% and solid GDP growth, form the primary driver behind the near-even market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reflected in the June dot plot’s 3.8% median funds rate projection, has shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy while leaving room for data-dependent outcomes. Upcoming September and October meetings, plus releases such as the September CPI and nonfarm payrolls, remain key swing factors that could widen the current tight probability spread.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ET
Volume
$455,201Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Elevated inflation readings, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline PCE around 3.6% in mid-2026 amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with resilient labor market data showing unemployment steady near 4.3% and solid GDP growth, form the primary driver behind the near-even market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reflected in the June dot plot’s 3.8% median funds rate projection, has shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy while leaving room for data-dependent outcomes. Upcoming September and October meetings, plus releases such as the September CPI and nonfarm payrolls, remain key swing factors that could widen the current tight probability spread.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's December 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 8-9, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$455,201Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Jul 29, 2026, 8:38 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Elevated inflation readings, with core PCE near 3.4% and headline PCE around 3.6% in mid-2026 amid Middle East-related energy pressures, combined with resilient labor market data showing unemployment steady near 4.3% and solid GDP growth, form the primary driver behind the near-even market-implied odds of a 25 basis point hike (47.5%) versus no change (44.5%) at the December FOMC. New Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish emphasis on returning inflation to the 2% target, reflected in the June dot plot’s 3.8% median funds rate projection, has shifted trader consensus toward tighter policy while leaving room for data-dependent outcomes. Upcoming September and October meetings, plus releases such as the September CPI and nonfarm payrolls, remain key swing factors that could widen the current tight probability spread.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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