Recent developments at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time amid a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, have kept trader sentiment closely divided on the June-July-September sequence. Elevated inflation readings, supply shocks including higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, and a resilient economy with solid growth and stable unemployment have boosted the implied probability of a September hike, balancing the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome near even odds against "Other." Market-implied paths now price potential further tightening through year-end, contrasting with the prior unanimous holds and reflecting uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and updated projections. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket underscores this tight contest driven by incoming data on CPI, labor conditions, and central bank communications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourFed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$691,176 Vol.
$691,176 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
1%
Other
47%
Pause–Pause–Pause 50%
Other 47%
Pause–Pause–Cut <1%
$691,176 Vol.
$691,176 Vol.
16 sept. 2026
Pause–Pause–Pause
$277,036 Vol.
50%
Pause–Pause–Cut
$61,039 Vol.
1%
Other
$297,225 Vol.
47%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent developments at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time amid a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, have kept trader sentiment closely divided on the June-July-September sequence. Elevated inflation readings, supply shocks including higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, and a resilient economy with solid growth and stable unemployment have boosted the implied probability of a September hike, balancing the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome near even odds against "Other." Market-implied paths now price potential further tightening through year-end, contrasting with the prior unanimous holds and reflecting uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and updated projections. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket underscores this tight contest driven by incoming data on CPI, labor conditions, and central bank communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ET
Volume
$691,176Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent developments at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time amid a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, have kept trader sentiment closely divided on the June-July-September sequence. Elevated inflation readings, supply shocks including higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, and a resilient economy with solid growth and stable unemployment have boosted the implied probability of a September hike, balancing the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome near even odds against "Other." Market-implied paths now price potential further tightening through year-end, contrasting with the prior unanimous holds and reflecting uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and updated projections. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket underscores this tight contest driven by incoming data on CPI, labor conditions, and central bank communications.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: June 16-17; July 28-29; and September 15-16.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate hike will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate cuts outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$691,176Date de fin
16 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 29, 2026, 7:50 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments at the July 28-29 FOMC meeting, where the Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.50-3.75% for the fifth consecutive time amid a 9-3 split with three members dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point hike, have kept trader sentiment closely divided on the June-July-September sequence. Elevated inflation readings, supply shocks including higher oil prices tied to Middle East tensions, and a resilient economy with solid growth and stable unemployment have boosted the implied probability of a September hike, balancing the Pause-Pause-Pause outcome near even odds against "Other." Market-implied paths now price potential further tightening through year-end, contrasting with the prior unanimous holds and reflecting uncertainty ahead of the September 15-16 meeting and updated projections. Aggregated capital at risk on Polymarket underscores this tight contest driven by incoming data on CPI, labor conditions, and central bank communications.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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