Recent stronger-than-expected August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures near 3.3% core PCE, have anchored trader sentiment toward a hawkish Fed path for the September, October/November, and December meetings. The June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for 2026, removal of easing bias under new Chair Warsh, and futures pricing roughly 40 basis points of tightening across the next three meetings underpin the 31% lead for Pause-Pause-Pause while supporting the combined 50%+ probability across hike-inclusive sequences. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases, supply-side risks, and FOMC communications that could shift implied probabilities between hold-only and one-to-two hike paths.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourPause–Pause–Pause 32%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 15%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 13%
Hausse–Pause–Hausse 11%
$16,676 Vol.
$16,676 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
11%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
15%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
7%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
13%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
32%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
7%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
6%
Autre
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause 32%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause 15%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause 13%
Hausse–Pause–Hausse 11%
$16,676 Vol.
$16,676 Vol.
9 déc. 2026
Hausse–Pause–Hausse
$329 Vol.
11%
Augmenter–Pause–Pause
$569 Vol.
15%
Relèvement–Relèvement–Relèvement
$277 Vol.
7%
Hausse–Hausse–Pause
$474 Vol.
13%
Pause–Pause–Hausse
$927 Vol.
7%
Pause–Pause–Pause
$11,764 Vol.
32%
Pause–Hausse–Hausse
$977 Vol.
7%
Pause–Hausse–Pause
$1,066 Vol.
6%
Autre
$294 Vol.
7%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent stronger-than-expected August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures near 3.3% core PCE, have anchored trader sentiment toward a hawkish Fed path for the September, October/November, and December meetings. The June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for 2026, removal of easing bias under new Chair Warsh, and futures pricing roughly 40 basis points of tightening across the next three meetings underpin the 31% lead for Pause-Pause-Pause while supporting the combined 50%+ probability across hike-inclusive sequences. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases, supply-side risks, and FOMC communications that could shift implied probabilities between hold-only and one-to-two hike paths.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Marché ouvert : Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ET
Volume
$16,676Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmRecent stronger-than-expected August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures near 3.3% core PCE, have anchored trader sentiment toward a hawkish Fed path for the September, October/November, and December meetings. The June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for 2026, removal of easing bias under new Chair Warsh, and futures pricing roughly 40 basis points of tightening across the next three meetings underpin the 31% lead for Pause-Pause-Pause while supporting the combined 50%+ probability across hike-inclusive sequences. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases, supply-side risks, and FOMC communications that could shift implied probabilities between hold-only and one-to-two hike paths.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve according to the decisions made by the next three Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings: September 15-16; October 27-28; and December 8-9.
A qualifying cut occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lower compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying hike occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is higher compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
A qualifying pause occurs when the new upper bound of the target federal funds rate is equal to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the Fed publishes a different combination than any listed, this market will resolve to "Other". Any rate cut will be encompassed by "Other".
Emergency rate changes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Volume
$16,676Date de fin
9 déc. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 2, 2026, 4:24 PM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent stronger-than-expected August jobs data, with 162,000 payroll gains and unemployment holding at 4.1%, alongside persistent inflation pressures near 3.3% core PCE, have anchored trader sentiment toward a hawkish Fed path for the September, October/November, and December meetings. The June SEP's upward revision to a 3.8% median funds rate endpoint for 2026, removal of easing bias under new Chair Warsh, and futures pricing roughly 40 basis points of tightening across the next three meetings underpin the 31% lead for Pause-Pause-Pause while supporting the combined 50%+ probability across hike-inclusive sequences. Key swing factors include upcoming CPI and employment releases, supply-side risks, and FOMC communications that could shift implied probabilities between hold-only and one-to-two hike paths.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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