Forecast models from major meteorological centers point to a daily maximum near 34°C in Chongqing on August 6, driven by partial clearing after recent rain events and modest subtropical high influence, with isolated thunderstorms expected to limit extreme heating through cloud cover and evaporative cooling. This places the outcome in line with early-August climatology for the region, where average highs hover around 34°C amid high humidity and frequent convective activity. Recent cooling from persistent showers on August 3–5 has kept trader focus on the 33–35°C range, while model spread on storm timing introduces uncertainty that could shift the peak by 1–2°C depending on afternoon convective timing. Updated guidance from Chinese meteorological agencies and ensemble runs will refine probabilities ahead of market resolution.