Trader sentiment favors 33°C or below at 35.5% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a maximum of 32-34°C amid lingering post-winter cool fronts and recent cloud cover suppressing heat buildup. Historical March averages hover around 32°C, with this year's early-season data showing daytime highs below 35°C despite fading El Niño influences that typically boost temperatures. Short-term models from IMD and ECMWF indicate low wind speeds and partial cloudiness, capping peaks under 36°C, while minimal chatter on extreme heat in real-time discussions reinforces caution against higher outcomes like 40°C+, trading at under 14%. Upcoming hourly updates could shift odds if clear skies emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Lucknow le 25 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Lucknow le 25 mars ?
33°C ou moins 50%
36°C 17%
37°C 17%
38°C 17%
33°C ou moins
36%
34°C
12%
35°C
12%
36°C
17%
37°C
17%
38°C
17%
39°C
16%
40°C
14%
41°C
13%
42°C
12%
43°C ou plus
1%
33°C ou moins 50%
36°C 17%
37°C 17%
38°C 17%
33°C ou moins
36%
34°C
12%
35°C
12%
36°C
17%
37°C
17%
38°C
17%
39°C
16%
40°C
14%
41°C
13%
42°C
12%
43°C ou plus
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment favors 33°C or below at 35.5% implied probability for Lucknow's highest temperature on March 25, driven by India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts projecting a maximum of 32-34°C amid lingering post-winter cool fronts and recent cloud cover suppressing heat buildup. Historical March averages hover around 32°C, with this year's early-season data showing daytime highs below 35°C despite fading El Niño influences that typically boost temperatures. Short-term models from IMD and ECMWF indicate low wind speeds and partial cloudiness, capping peaks under 36°C, while minimal chatter on extreme heat in real-time discussions reinforces caution against higher outcomes like 40°C+, trading at under 14%. Upcoming hourly updates could shift odds if clear skies emerge.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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