Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 4, 2026, project a daily high near 31°C with lows around 25–26°C and a 60–100% chance of rain under southwest monsoon influence. Cloud cover and precipitation are the dominant variables that can suppress peak temperatures below climatological averages of 30–32°C, creating tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Traders weigh model consensus on convective activity and steering patterns that determine how much solar insolation reaches urban surfaces, where the heat-island effect normally elevates readings. Updated PAGASA briefings and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift probabilities among the closely bunched central outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Manille le 4 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Manille le 4 août ?
28°C 28%
29°C 24%
30°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
23°C ou moins
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
6%
26°C
10%
27°C
12%
28°C
28%
29°C
24%
30°C
16%
31°C
11%
32°C
7%
33°C ou plus
2%
28°C 28%
29°C 24%
30°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
23°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
1%
24°C
$5 Vol.
1%
25°C
$28 Vol.
6%
26°C
$0 Vol.
10%
27°C
$0 Vol.
12%
28°C
$0 Vol.
28%
29°C
$0 Vol.
24%
30°C
$0 Vol.
16%
31°C
$0 Vol.
11%
32°C
$13 Vol.
7%
33°C ou plus
$21 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 4, 2026, project a daily high near 31°C with lows around 25–26°C and a 60–100% chance of rain under southwest monsoon influence. Cloud cover and precipitation are the dominant variables that can suppress peak temperatures below climatological averages of 30–32°C, creating tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Traders weigh model consensus on convective activity and steering patterns that determine how much solar insolation reaches urban surfaces, where the heat-island effect normally elevates readings. Updated PAGASA briefings and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift probabilities among the closely bunched central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volume
$67Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 4, 2026, project a daily high near 31°C with lows around 25–26°C and a 60–100% chance of rain under southwest monsoon influence. Cloud cover and precipitation are the dominant variables that can suppress peak temperatures below climatological averages of 30–32°C, creating tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Traders weigh model consensus on convective activity and steering patterns that determine how much solar insolation reaches urban surfaces, where the heat-island effect normally elevates readings. Updated PAGASA briefings and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift probabilities among the closely bunched central outcomes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$67Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:06 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Official PAGASA forecasts for Metro Manila on August 4, 2026, project a daily high near 31°C with lows around 25–26°C and a 60–100% chance of rain under southwest monsoon influence. Cloud cover and precipitation are the dominant variables that can suppress peak temperatures below climatological averages of 30–32°C, creating tight clustering in market-implied odds around 27–29°C. Traders weigh model consensus on convective activity and steering patterns that determine how much solar insolation reaches urban surfaces, where the heat-island effect normally elevates readings. Updated PAGASA briefings and short-range model runs over the next 48 hours remain the key catalysts that could shift probabilities among the closely bunched central outcomes.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes