**Short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris’s maximum temperature on August 4 most likely between 31–33 °C under a lingering ridge of high pressure that has sustained above-normal warmth following the late-July heat wave.** Model consensus shows southwesterly flow advecting warmer air masses, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring daytime heating near the seasonal upper quartile (climatological August highs average ~25–26 °C). The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects modest run-to-run variability in boundary-layer moisture and any weak frontal passage that could cap temperatures near 30 °C or allow brief spikes toward 34 °C. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles over the next 24–48 hours, plus updated Météo-France bulletins, remain the key catalysts that could shift the distribution before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Paris le 4 août ?
La température la plus élevée à Paris le 4 août ?
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
29°C or below
3%
30°C
6%
31°C
26%
32°C
34%
33°C
24%
34°C
9%
35°C
2%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C or higher
<1%
32°C 34%
31°C 26%
33°C 24%
34°C 9%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
4 août 2026
29°C or below
$71 Vol.
3%
30°C
$31 Vol.
6%
31°C
$44 Vol.
26%
32°C
$196 Vol.
34%
33°C
$59 Vol.
24%
34°C
$75 Vol.
9%
35°C
$67 Vol.
2%
36°C
$36 Vol.
1%
37°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
38°C
$16 Vol.
<1%
39°C or higher
$46 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris’s maximum temperature on August 4 most likely between 31–33 °C under a lingering ridge of high pressure that has sustained above-normal warmth following the late-July heat wave.** Model consensus shows southwesterly flow advecting warmer air masses, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring daytime heating near the seasonal upper quartile (climatological August highs average ~25–26 °C). The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects modest run-to-run variability in boundary-layer moisture and any weak frontal passage that could cap temperatures near 30 °C or allow brief spikes toward 34 °C. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles over the next 24–48 hours, plus updated Météo-France bulletins, remain the key catalysts that could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Volume
$657Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris’s maximum temperature on August 4 most likely between 31–33 °C under a lingering ridge of high pressure that has sustained above-normal warmth following the late-July heat wave.** Model consensus shows southwesterly flow advecting warmer air masses, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring daytime heating near the seasonal upper quartile (climatological August highs average ~25–26 °C). The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects modest run-to-run variability in boundary-layer moisture and any weak frontal passage that could cap temperatures near 30 °C or allow brief spikes toward 34 °C. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles over the next 24–48 hours, plus updated Météo-France bulletins, remain the key catalysts that could shift the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$657Date de fin
4 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 2, 2026, 12:02 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPBResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Short-range ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF place Paris’s maximum temperature on August 4 most likely between 31–33 °C under a lingering ridge of high pressure that has sustained above-normal warmth following the late-July heat wave.** Model consensus shows southwesterly flow advecting warmer air masses, with limited cloud cover and light winds favoring daytime heating near the seasonal upper quartile (climatological August highs average ~25–26 °C). The tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around these values reflects modest run-to-run variability in boundary-layer moisture and any weak frontal passage that could cap temperatures near 30 °C or allow brief spikes toward 34 °C. New 00Z and 12Z model cycles over the next 24–48 hours, plus updated Météo-France bulletins, remain the key catalysts that could shift the distribution before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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