Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourTempérature la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 15 août ?
Température la plus élevée à Sao Paulo le 15 août ?
26°C 35%
25°C 30%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 août 2026
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
16%
25°C
30%
26°C
35%
27°C
12%
28°C
5%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 35%
25°C 30%
24°C 16%
27°C 12%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
15 août 2026
20°C or below
$25 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$57 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$208 Vol.
1%
23°C
$523 Vol.
7%
24°C
$554 Vol.
16%
25°C
$528 Vol.
30%
26°C
$1,635 Vol.
35%
27°C
$508 Vol.
12%
28°C
$27 Vol.
5%
29°C
$35 Vol.
1%
30°C or higher
$118 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
Volume
$4,219Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,219Date de fin
15 août 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a São Paulo maximum of 25–26 °C on 15 August because the latest model runs cluster tightly around that range amid typical winter conditions. Subtropical high pressure and a modest positive temperature anomaly (+0.4 °C regionally) support mild daytime warming, yet increased low-level moisture and overcast skies are expected to limit solar heating and cap the peak. Ensemble differences arise mainly from boundary-layer wind speed and cloud timing: slightly stronger southerly flow or earlier cloud build-up favors 25 °C, while clearer intervals or lighter winds allow brief additional warming toward 26 °C. Historical August maxima near 25 °C and the absence of strong frontal systems reinforce the narrow spread seen in market-implied probabilities.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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