Trader sentiment on São Paulo's highest temperature March 25 reflects tight uncertainty in global weather models, with ECMWF ensembles leaning toward 28-29°C under partly cloudy skies and possible afternoon showers, while GFS runs imply hotter 30-31°C with more sunshine. INMET's official forecast caps at 30°C amid 40% rain chances, differentiating the top outcomes—25°C (24% implied probability) if convective clouds dominate versus 31°C (24%) on clearer conditions. Urban heat island effects and sea breeze timing add variability to the typical late-March average of 28°C, keeping 29°C viable at 22% as ensembles converge on moderate highs before resolution via airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
30°C 18%
24 °C ou moins
2%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
13%
33°C
11%
34°C or higher
2%
29°C 22%
27°C 18%
28°C 18%
30°C 18%
24 °C ou moins
2%
25°C
16%
26°C
17%
27°C
18%
28°C
18%
29°C
22%
30°C
18%
31°C
17%
32°C
13%
33°C
11%
34°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on São Paulo's highest temperature March 25 reflects tight uncertainty in global weather models, with ECMWF ensembles leaning toward 28-29°C under partly cloudy skies and possible afternoon showers, while GFS runs imply hotter 30-31°C with more sunshine. INMET's official forecast caps at 30°C amid 40% rain chances, differentiating the top outcomes—25°C (24% implied probability) if convective clouds dominate versus 31°C (24%) on clearer conditions. Urban heat island effects and sea breeze timing add variability to the typical late-March average of 28°C, keeping 29°C viable at 22% as ensembles converge on moderate highs before resolution via airport observations.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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