Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Wuhan's highest temperature at Tianhe International Airport on April 18, with implied probabilities split evenly between 31°C and 33°C or higher amid a sharp warming trend. After cooler highs around 20-22°C earlier in April, latest China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble outputs show building high pressure and southerly winds advecting warm, moist air, enabling clear skies and peak afternoon heating in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Divergent model runs highlight key differentiators: stronger subsidence in hotter outliers could push beyond 33°C via enhanced insolation, while partial cloudiness or lighter winds may cap at 31°C, aligning with historical April variability around a 22°C average. New forecast cycles overnight from NOAA and CMA will clarify the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Wuhan on April 18?
Highest temperature in Wuhan on April 18?
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
28°C 20%
26°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
1%
24°C
5%
25°C
20%
26°C
19%
27°C
24%
28°C
20%
29°C
16%
30°C
10%
31°C
2%
32°C
1%
33°C or higher
1%
27°C 24%
25°C 20%
28°C 20%
26°C 19%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 avr. 2026
23°C or below
$125 Vol.
1%
24°C
$115 Vol.
5%
25°C
$0 Vol.
20%
26°C
$0 Vol.
19%
27°C
$0 Vol.
24%
28°C
$10 Vol.
20%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C
$5 Vol.
10%
31°C
$56 Vol.
2%
32°C
$90 Vol.
1%
33°C or higher
$74 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Wuhan's highest temperature at Tianhe International Airport on April 18, with implied probabilities split evenly between 31°C and 33°C or higher amid a sharp warming trend. After cooler highs around 20-22°C earlier in April, latest China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble outputs show building high pressure and southerly winds advecting warm, moist air, enabling clear skies and peak afternoon heating in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Divergent model runs highlight key differentiators: stronger subsidence in hotter outliers could push beyond 33°C via enhanced insolation, while partial cloudiness or lighter winds may cap at 31°C, aligning with historical April variability around a 22°C average. New forecast cycles overnight from NOAA and CMA will clarify the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ET
Volume
$470Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Wuhan's highest temperature at Tianhe International Airport on April 18, with implied probabilities split evenly between 31°C and 33°C or higher amid a sharp warming trend. After cooler highs around 20-22°C earlier in April, latest China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble outputs show building high pressure and southerly winds advecting warm, moist air, enabling clear skies and peak afternoon heating in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Divergent model runs highlight key differentiators: stronger subsidence in hotter outliers could push beyond 33°C via enhanced insolation, while partial cloudiness or lighter winds may cap at 31°C, aligning with historical April variability around a 22°C average. New forecast cycles overnight from NOAA and CMA will clarify the balance.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Wuhan Tianhe International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHH.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$470Date de fin
18 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Apr 16, 2026, 1:16 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/wuhan/ZHHHResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects deep uncertainty in short-range forecasts for Wuhan's highest temperature at Tianhe International Airport on April 18, with implied probabilities split evenly between 31°C and 33°C or higher amid a sharp warming trend. After cooler highs around 20-22°C earlier in April, latest China Meteorological Administration, GFS, and ECMWF ensemble outputs show building high pressure and southerly winds advecting warm, moist air, enabling clear skies and peak afternoon heating in the upper 20s to low 30s Celsius. Divergent model runs highlight key differentiators: stronger subsidence in hotter outliers could push beyond 33°C via enhanced insolation, while partial cloudiness or lighter winds may cap at 31°C, aligning with historical April variability around a 22°C average. New forecast cycles overnight from NOAA and CMA will clarify the balance.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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