Recent ensemble forecasts reveal substantial model spread for Moscow's minimum temperature on September 18, with solutions split between a potential cold advection bringing readings at or below 5°C and milder high-pressure influence keeping lows at or above 15°C. This bifurcation arises from uncertainty in the arrival and intensity of an upper-level trough, variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate nocturnal temperature drops. September climatology places typical overnight lows near 8–10°C, underscoring why trader consensus currently prices the extremes nearly evenly while assigning lower probabilities to intermediate values. Next model cycles from global centers should refine the temperature trajectory ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Moscou le 18 septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Moscou le 18 septembre ?
5°C ou moins 93%
15°C ou plus 93%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 sept. 2026
5°C ou moins
93%
6°C
18%
7°C
18%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
21%
11°C
22%
12°C
22%
13°C
18%
14°C
18%
15°C ou plus
93%
5°C ou moins 93%
15°C ou plus 93%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
18 sept. 2026
5°C ou moins
$0 Vol.
93%
6°C
$0 Vol.
18%
7°C
$0 Vol.
18%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
21%
11°C
$0 Vol.
22%
12°C
$0 Vol.
22%
13°C
$0 Vol.
18%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C ou plus
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts reveal substantial model spread for Moscow's minimum temperature on September 18, with solutions split between a potential cold advection bringing readings at or below 5°C and milder high-pressure influence keeping lows at or above 15°C. This bifurcation arises from uncertainty in the arrival and intensity of an upper-level trough, variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate nocturnal temperature drops. September climatology places typical overnight lows near 8–10°C, underscoring why trader consensus currently prices the extremes nearly evenly while assigning lower probabilities to intermediate values. Next model cycles from global centers should refine the temperature trajectory ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
18 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts reveal substantial model spread for Moscow's minimum temperature on September 18, with solutions split between a potential cold advection bringing readings at or below 5°C and milder high-pressure influence keeping lows at or above 15°C. This bifurcation arises from uncertainty in the arrival and intensity of an upper-level trough, variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate nocturnal temperature drops. September climatology places typical overnight lows near 8–10°C, underscoring why trader consensus currently prices the extremes nearly evenly while assigning lower probabilities to intermediate values. Next model cycles from global centers should refine the temperature trajectory ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 18 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0Date de fin
18 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Sep 16, 2026, 12:31 AM ETRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts reveal substantial model spread for Moscow's minimum temperature on September 18, with solutions split between a potential cold advection bringing readings at or below 5°C and milder high-pressure influence keeping lows at or above 15°C. This bifurcation arises from uncertainty in the arrival and intensity of an upper-level trough, variable cloud cover affecting longwave radiative cooling, and boundary-layer wind speeds that modulate nocturnal temperature drops. September climatology places typical overnight lows near 8–10°C, underscoring why trader consensus currently prices the extremes nearly evenly while assigning lower probabilities to intermediate values. Next model cycles from global centers should refine the temperature trajectory ahead of the 24-hour verification window.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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