Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourLa température la plus basse à Wellington le 1er septembre ?
La température la plus basse à Wellington le 1er septembre ?
5°C 99.6%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
7°C <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
2°C or below
<1%
3°C
1%
4°C
1%
5°C
100%
6°C
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C or higher
<1%
5°C 99.6%
3°C <1%
4°C <1%
7°C <1%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
1 sept. 2026
2°C or below
$397 Vol.
<1%
3°C
$473 Vol.
1%
4°C
$197 Vol.
1%
5°C
$404 Vol.
100%
6°C
$421 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$1,343 Vol.
1%
8°C
$1,380 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$1,170 Vol.
<1%
10°C
$134 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$219 Vol.
<1%
12°C or higher
$172 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Marché ouvert : Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Volume
$6,309Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$6,309Date de fin
1 sept. 2026Marché ouvert
Aug 30, 2026, 12:29 AM ETSource de résolution
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnRésolveur
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from New Zealand meteorological agencies currently project a minimum temperature of 5°C in Wellington on September 1, 2026, driving the 99.5% market-implied probability. This consensus stems from observed northwesterly flow, clear skies overnight, and stable atmospheric conditions that limit radiative cooling while aligning with ensemble outputs showing the low occurring near dawn. Historical September minima average near 8°C, making the cooler reading a modest departure supported by real-time observations rather than long-term trends. The outcome could shift only if post-midnight measurements at the official station record a different value due to localized wind gusts, sensor calibration, or unmodeled cloud cover, though current data indicate low likelihood of such revisions before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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