Virginia Democrats advanced a constitutional amendment and new congressional map in early 2026 that would have bypassed the state's independent redistricting commission to favor 10 Democratic seats ahead of the midterms. Voters approved the measure in an April special election, but the Virginia Supreme Court overturned it in May on procedural grounds tied to how the amendment advanced through the legislature. This left the existing districts—last drawn after the 2020 census and used since 2022—in place, with Democrats holding a 6-5 edge. The ruling aligned with Virginia's standard decennial process and removed the primary mechanism for mid-cycle changes. Trader consensus at 96% reflects the finality of the court decision and the short timeline remaining before November. Late shifts remain possible only through an extraordinary new legal filing or legislative maneuver that successfully navigates the same constitutional barriers, both of which lack precedent in the current cycle.