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Géopolitique·Israël

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

Market icon
Géopolitique·Israël

Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30?

61% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
61% chance
Polymarket
NOUVEAU
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's explicit statements excluding Lebanon from the recent U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire—calling it a "separate skirmish"—have anchored trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for no endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30, reflecting his alignment with Prime Minister Netanyahu's position amid intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets that killed over 250 in a single day. This closely contested market balances Trump's pro-Israel foreign policy and reports of private urging to scale back operations against diplomatic pressures from Iran, which insists on regional inclusion, and upcoming direct Israel-Lebanon talks hosted in the U.S. Escalation in Lebanon or stalled Hormuz reopening could solidify "No," while successful negotiations might prompt Trump endorsement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.

The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.

Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.

Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.

Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Volume
$4,244
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.President Trump's explicit statements excluding Lebanon from the recent U.S.-Iran two-week ceasefire—calling it a "separate skirmish"—have anchored trader consensus at 51.5% implied probability for no endorsement of an Israeli ceasefire by April 30, reflecting his alignment with Prime Minister Netanyahu's position amid intensified Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets that killed over 250 in a single day. This closely contested market balances Trump's pro-Israel foreign policy and reports of private urging to scale back operations against diplomatic pressures from Iran, which insists on regional inclusion, and upcoming direct Israel-Lebanon talks hosted in the U.S. Escalation in Lebanon or stalled Hormuz reopening could solidify "No," while successful negotiations might prompt Trump endorsement.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon.

The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if:
- Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon.
-An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means.

Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify.

Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire.

Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.
Volume
$4,562
Date de fin
30 avr. 2026
Marché ouvert
Apr 9, 2026, 5:09 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Donald Trump or the United States government endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon refers to a cessation of military hostilities by Israel in or against Lebanon. The United States will be considered to have endorsed an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon if: - Donald Trump or another authorized representative of the Government of the United States publicly announces that the United States supports, backs, or endorses an Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon. -An Israeli ceasefire in Lebanon is included as part of, or as a precondition to, an official treaty or deal established any set of countries including the United States, either through signing or other formal means. Endorsement requires a clear and affirmative expression of support. Statements that merely acknowledge the possibility of a ceasefire or discuss a ceasefire without expressing clear support will not qualify. Statements that are contingent on uncertain future events will not qualify unless they include a clear and present endorsement of a ceasefire. Any qualifying endorsement made before the resolution date will count, regardless of whether a ceasefire is actually implemented. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Donald Trump, the U.S. government, and their official representatives; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to verify the details of a qualifying statement.

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Questions fréquentes

« Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket où les traders achètent et vendent des parts « Oui » ou « Non » selon qu'ils estiment que cet événement se produira ou non. La probabilité actuelle selon la communauté est de 61% pour « Yes ». Par exemple, si « Oui » est coté à 61¢, le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 61% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes changent en permanence à mesure que les traders réagissent aux nouveaux développements et informations. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Apr 9, 2026. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? », choisissez simplement si vous pensez que la réponse est « Oui » ou « Non ». Chaque côté a un prix actuel qui reflète la probabilité implicite du marché. Entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si vous achetez des parts « Oui » et que le résultat se résout comme « Oui », chaque part rapporte $1. S'il se résout comme « Non », vos parts « Oui » rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts à tout moment avant la résolution pour sécuriser un gain ou limiter une perte.

La probabilité actuelle pour « Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? » est de 61% pour « Yes ». Cela signifie que la communauté Polymarket estime actuellement qu'il y a une probabilité de 61% que cet événement se produise. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel sur la base de transactions réelles, fournissant un signal continuellement actualisé de ce que le marché attend.

Les règles de résolution de « Will Trump endorse an Israeli Ceasefire in Lebanon by April 30? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.