Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाबर्लिन राज्य चुनाव विजेता
बर्लिन राज्य चुनाव विजेता
CDU 57%
ग्रुने 15.0%
लिंके 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 वॉल्यूम
$2,572,559 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
CDU
57%
ग्रुने
15%
लिंके
12%
AfD
9%
SPD
7%
बीएसडब्ल्यू
1%
FDP
<1%
FW
<1%
CDU 57%
ग्रुने 15.0%
लिंके 12%
AfD 9.2%
$2,572,559 वॉल्यूम
$2,572,559 वॉल्यूम
20 सित, 2026
CDU
$15,140 वॉल्यूम
57%
ग्रुने
$27,805 वॉल्यूम
15%
लिंके
$11,555 वॉल्यूम
12%
AfD
$2,187,196 वॉल्यूम
9%
SPD
$287,315 वॉल्यूम
7%
बीएसडब्ल्यू
$26,247 वॉल्यूम
1%
FDP
$10,274 वॉल्यूम
<1%
FW
$7,026 वॉल्यूम
<1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
बाज़ार खुला: Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$2,572,559समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the case of a tie between this party or coalition and any other for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
वॉल्यूम
$2,572,559समाप्ति तिथि
20 सित, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Dec 2, 2025, 6:34 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors the CDU at 57.5% implied probability to secure the most seats in Berlin's Abgeordnetenhaus on September 20, driven by its incumbency advantage under Governing Mayor Kai Wegner and consistent leads in Sonntagsfragen. The latest INSA poll (April 7-14) shows CDU at 21%, ahead of SPD and AfD at 17% each, Grüne and Linke at 15%, amid proportional representation with a 5% threshold. Recent surveys indicate a slight CDU softening from 22% in February, offset by SPD gains, yet no challenger closes the gap; black-red coalition lacks majority, spotlighting potential three-party deals post-election. This positioning reflects polling trends and historical base rates for leading parties in state Landtagswahlen.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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