Trader consensus prices a commanding 93% probability on the Democratic Party prevailing in California's 38th Congressional District House race, reflecting the new district's Cook PVI of D+10—where Democrats captured 54.5% in the 2024 presidential vote—and its Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others. This open seat emerged from November 2025 mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, displacing incumbent Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, leaving a crowded top-two primary field on June 2, 2026: three Democrats (Hilda Solis, frontrunner with state party and progressive endorsements plus $398,000 cash on hand; Monica Sanchez; Erik Lutz) against lone Republican Pedro Casas. With Democrats vastly outspending Republicans, traders anticipate a Democratic general election matchup. Upsets could stem from Casas surging in the primary, a Solis scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -38 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
CA -38 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$48,885 वॉल्यूम
$48,885 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
7%
$48,885 वॉल्यूम
$48,885 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$23,059 वॉल्यूम
93%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$25,827 वॉल्यूम
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a commanding 93% probability on the Democratic Party prevailing in California's 38th Congressional District House race, reflecting the new district's Cook PVI of D+10—where Democrats captured 54.5% in the 2024 presidential vote—and its Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others. This open seat emerged from November 2025 mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, displacing incumbent Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, leaving a crowded top-two primary field on June 2, 2026: three Democrats (Hilda Solis, frontrunner with state party and progressive endorsements plus $398,000 cash on hand; Monica Sanchez; Erik Lutz) against lone Republican Pedro Casas. With Democrats vastly outspending Republicans, traders anticipate a Democratic general election matchup. Upsets could stem from Casas surging in the primary, a Solis scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$48,885समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a commanding 93% probability on the Democratic Party prevailing in California's 38th Congressional District House race, reflecting the new district's Cook PVI of D+10—where Democrats captured 54.5% in the 2024 presidential vote—and its Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others. This open seat emerged from November 2025 mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, displacing incumbent Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, leaving a crowded top-two primary field on June 2, 2026: three Democrats (Hilda Solis, frontrunner with state party and progressive endorsements plus $398,000 cash on hand; Monica Sanchez; Erik Lutz) against lone Republican Pedro Casas. With Democrats vastly outspending Republicans, traders anticipate a Democratic general election matchup. Upsets could stem from Casas surging in the primary, a Solis scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$48,885समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a commanding 93% probability on the Democratic Party prevailing in California's 38th Congressional District House race, reflecting the new district's Cook PVI of D+10—where Democrats captured 54.5% in the 2024 presidential vote—and its Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report and others. This open seat emerged from November 2025 mid-decade redistricting under Proposition 50, displacing incumbent Linda Sánchez (D) to CA-41, leaving a crowded top-two primary field on June 2, 2026: three Democrats (Hilda Solis, frontrunner with state party and progressive endorsements plus $398,000 cash on hand; Monica Sanchez; Erik Lutz) against lone Republican Pedro Casas. With Democrats vastly outspending Republicans, traders anticipate a Democratic general election matchup. Upsets could stem from Casas surging in the primary, a Solis scandal, or national Republican midterm momentum.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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