The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाCA -38 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
CA -38 हाउस चुनाव विजेता
$58,840 वॉल्यूम
$58,840 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
2%
$58,840 वॉल्यूम
$58,840 वॉल्यूम
3 नव, 2026
डेमोक्रेटिक पार्टी
$29,243 वॉल्यूम
95%
रिपब्लिकन पार्टी
$29,598 वॉल्यूम
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$58,840समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-38 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
वॉल्यूम
$58,840समाप्ति तिथि
3 नव, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 28, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The California 38th congressional district’s strong Democratic partisan lean, reflected in its D+8 Cook Partisan Voting Index and consistent top-two primary results, underpins the 94.5% market price for a Democratic winner in the November 3 general election. An open seat following redistricting drew multiple Democratic candidates, with Los Angeles County Supervisor Hilda Solis advancing alongside Republican Pedro Casas in the June 2 primary, confirming the expected partisan split. Election forecasters rate the race Solid Democratic, aligning with statewide surveys showing a 29-point Democratic preference in local House contests. A late national Republican surge, major scandal affecting the Democratic nominee, or unusually high turnout shifts could narrow the margin, though historical performance in the district makes such reversals improbable.
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